By Tim Van Prooyen

Here we are at yet another season opening where all fantasy owners are convinced their team is the one that will bring home the championship and that every far reaching ‘expectation’ pick is the smartest move anyone’s made since…well, you get the idea.  So, you may have noticed a new name at the top of this article, yes, I am taking over the reins at the ‘Fantasy Stock Market’ this year and am looking forward to being back in the land of offense after a lengthy IDP run. 

 

Since the previous caretaker of this section did such an amazing job, I’ll be doing little to change things up.  Rather, I’ll be doing my best to continue the great work that’s been happening here and hopefully deliver a product that can be trusted to help keep your team moving in the right direction.  So, with this caveat, let’s review a few thoughts and guidelines that have and will continue to govern this segment.

 

The purpose of this segment is not to pinpoint far reaching sleepers or gambles each week.  Instead, it takes a look at a few players from each key offensive position (QB, RB, WR, TE, PK) and a couple of team defenses, and lets you know whether we see them as upgrades or downgrades for the week.  We’ll look at not only identifying these movers and shakers, but will do our best to give you smart analysis as to why the moves are being made and how that could impact things for you, the fantasy owner.  One primary use for this article is to determine trade value of players you may want to unload, or those you may be targeting.

 

Remember, this article deals primarily with guys you’ll know, who likely are already on a roster.  If you want waiver wire miracles, look for that information elsewhere in the weekly report.  Of course, sometimes there will be some overlap, as should be expected, but it should be stressed that this is not the intent of this segment.

 

As the previous writer of this segment put it so well, I must borrow the following caveat for the first article of the season.  I quote. “It’s a bit challenging to upgrade and downgrade players before a single week of action is in the books, but that never stops me from trying. Expect some significant adjustments after the first week of games are in the books, but the first installment the article will rely on perceived player value based on things like average draft position and media hype. By using these trends as a starting point, hopefully the article can provide some insight heading into the first week of the season.”  Well said.  I echo those sentiments and add…let’s get it on!

 

Upgrades

 

Brett Favre, QB, New York Jets

Since he likely wasn’t listed in many of the preseason publications due to his retirement last year, this one is a no brainer, but it does bear a close look to determine just how much impact he will have this year.  Will he throw a few picks, most definitely.  Will he still toss a few crazy touchdowns…you bet.  Keep in mind that in the past few years Jet receivers haven’t always been too shabby, and that’s been with quarterbacks nowhere near Favre’s caliber.  This points to the fact that Favre should definitely be entering a situation where he most assuredly will make most of those around him much better.  That equation equals a solid upgrade for Favre.

 

Chad Pennington, QB, Miami Dolphins

Here is an interesting case.  First I must point out that I’m making an assumption that Chad stays healthy, which we all know is pretty much as long a shot as you can ever take these days, but it must be pointed out before proceeding.  The situation he enters in Miami is conducive to him being quite productive.  He has a very solid up and coming receiver in Ted Ginn, Jr., a solid line and a very good running game to work with.  The pieces are lined up for him to have a very surprising season…again, if he stays healthy.

 

Chris Perry and Kenny Watson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Here we have a situation that basically has two guys moving up by virtue of someone moving out.  Rudi Johnson is gone, and the team has basically committed to a running back by committee approach, meaning both of these guys merit consideration as borderline starters.  Perry hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but the team obviously thinks he will for some reason.  Watson isn’t really an every down back, but he’s performed well when having to carry the load in the past, so could do it again.  Either way, they both move up, albeit just a bit.

 

Steve Slaton, RB, Houston Texans

If you haven’t heard his name by now you’ve been under a rock the past few weeks.  The rookie is among a bunch of backs in Houston, but is probably the most popular these days and looks to also be the healthiest, meaning the bulk of the carries could go his way if he stays that way.  While it’s not a booming place for running backs these days, any back getting significant touches who is as fast as Slaton automatically gains some value. 

 

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers

While it seems like he’s been around for a while, Williams is only entering his third season, and has only started two games.  Everyone thought that the team’s drafting of Jonathan Stewart meant Williams would be the ultimate second fiddle, but things haven’t worked out that way and now Williams enters the season entrenched as the starter and will likely get most of the carries.  He’s been getting rave reviews and stayed healthy last year, meaning his upside is enormous.  If the team avoids the injury bug at QB and WR that it has fought the past two years, this could be a great season for Williams.

 

Laveranues Coles, WR, New York Jets

Coles has been a borderline top tier receiver in the past, but had fallen in magazines and early season prognostications due primarily to the many questions at quarterback.  Well, enter Brett Favre and voila, Coles begins to climb in drafts across the country.  Will the mere arrival of Favre increase his potential that much?  Quite likely the answer is yes.  Don’t let the fact that Coles was pretty peeved at the team for getting rid of Pennington, but he’s a player and when the lights come on, he’ll be ready to shine.  Look for his value to already be moving up, but to only get higher as the season progresses.

 

Alge Crumpler, TE, Tennessee Titans

Underused in the past and coming off injury, Crumpler’s been looked over in most drafts until late, however, the way things are shaping up, he could become a touchdown magnet in Tennessee and add quite a few receptions to go with it.  The team will use him as much as it can and take advantage of his skill and size, all good things to watch for when looking at tight end situations.  He’s on the rise in my book.

 

Jason Hanson, K, Detroit Lions

Without going into an expose of how crazy it is to even rank kickers at any level, I’ll take this spot to argue the Jason Hanson deserves a spot on the rising chart.  With a traditional system now in place in Detroit and with a solid corps of receivers and a young running game, the team should have plenty of times they get stymied just outside the end zone, meaning gold for one of the most consistent kickers in the game today.  Add to the mix that the team plays at least 9 games in a dome and you have a solid top ten season on deck for Hanson.

 

Detroit Lions D/ST

Before last season, while writing defensive assignments for Fantasy Insights, I did some serious research on team defense/special team scoring and came to an interesting finding.  Going back over the previous three years, only two teams in the NFL had scored almost the same number of points, within about ten or less, every year.  Most of the other teams had huge swings from one year to the next, but these two had only swayed by a couple of points a season…and were both in the top half of the league in defense/special teams fantasy points.  One team was the Seattle Seahawks, the other was the Detroit Lions.  We all expect Seattle to continue its dominance, but few realize the value of the Lions defense in fantasyland.  Due to the bad name they’ve received in the actual NFL, they don’t get much credit.  Now that they’ve been almost entirely revamped there is reason to believe they’ll continue to improve on what was already solid.

 

Don’t Believe the Hype

 

Jeremy Shockey, TE, New Orleans Saints

Shockey is the big name at tight end, but the bottom line here is that he went to the Saints.  The Saints are not exactly the model for using their tight end to the best of his ability.  While he’ll be in the play mix, he isn’t likely to put up top TE numbers this year or any other year that he’s in New Orleans.  

 

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Before you go absolutely crazy and try hunting me down to dope slap me, take a minute to hear my argument for putting AP under this tag.  Sure, we all know he is explosive, no one will argue that.  No one will also argue that he can drop a forty point game on you in nothing flat.  However, with all that upside, his downside is disastrous.  He has never played a full season…at least since high school.  He gets stuffed behind the line a whole bunch, ala Barry Sanders.  Here is what I think is the most telling stat.  Last year, his rookie breakout season, in a basic scoring system with PPR, AP only broke 20 points six times in the first 16 weeks (leaving out 17 since most leagues don’t count it).  Four of those times he didn’t reach 25 points.  In fact, in nine of those weeks he only topped 10 points three times, never reaching 14 points in any of those weeks…and not playing in two of those weeks due to injury.  What that means to me is that in only 6 weeks did he help a team win, and in those six, only twice did he single handedly carry a fantasy team to a win.  Now, I’ve been playing fantasy football for quite some time, but I have rarely seen a player that inconsistent carry a team to a championship and don’t ever think, until this year, I’ve ever seen someone that inconsistent taken with one of the top two spots in almost every draft.  So there, make your own decision, but personally I think the hype is way too overblown for a guy who’s done little to deserve it.

 

Downgrades

Derek Anderson, QB, Cleveland Browns

Owners of Braylon Edwards beware, but injuries may cause problems for Anderson not only at the beginning of the season, but the effect could be long lasting if Brady Quinn ends up producing should he have to play in Anderson’s stead.  While this could be premature worry, it definitely merits at least a bit of a downgrade.  Anderson has been a high draft choice and many owners have a lot riding on him, so for that sake I hope this is unwarranted, but we’ll have to see.  The latest news is that he’ll be starting this week, but a slight downgrade at least is warranted.

 

Rudi Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions

The Lions signed Johnson after he was cut by the Bengals.  While he’s had a rough last year, he was one of the most consistent backs in the league the three years previous, so definitely has the skills it takes.  He drops significantly in value, as he’ll have to earn any playing time he gets.  He has the potential to climb back up on this ranking throughout the season, but for the time being takes a sizeable hit.

 

Ahman Green, RB, Houston Texans

Yes, believe it or not he’s technically still playing.  However, he recently restructured his contract with lower pay and bonuses for each game he actually plays.   Not a great sign.  Bottom line here is you can’t bank on him and he likely will only play in a couple of games before hanging it up for the year due to another ‘freak’ injury.  Downgrade is putting it mildly.  

 

Chad Ocho Cinco, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Usually when the receiver formerly known as Chad Johnson mouths off and acts crazy he still performs on the field.  This year likely would have been no different, but a serious injury to his labrum makes his season one good knock from being over.  As it is he’ll likely start out fine, but a good hit is all it will take, so the gamble for fantasy owners is huge. He’s still going fairly high in drafts, but only because there are few others who have his upside at that point.  If you have him and he has a great opening week, trading might be recommended.

 

New York Giants, D/ST

The loss of Osi Umenyiora for the season singlehandedly slid the Giants down a notch or two, regardless of what other options they have.  While they have enough strong players to fill the gaps, the combined loss of Strahan to retirement and Umenyiora will be almost impossible to effectively replace anytime soon, meaning the odds of the team reaching their previous potential is slim.  While still a good unit, a downgrade is definitely called for.  

 

Don’t Panic

 

John Kitna, QB, Detroit Lions

The talk of the summer has been how the changes coming in Detroit will spell the end of Kitna’s success.  The chick thing to do seems to be bash all things having to do with this veteran quarterback.  Sure, he’s never been given much credit, but if you follow the path of his career, he’s done pretty well everywhere he’s been given the chance.  Now, jump ahead to this preseason.  In three games he tossed 21 passes, missing on only three, threw no interceptions and had a couple of long touchdown passes to his excellent receivers, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson.  One has to wonder, when Calvin Johnson has consistently been moving into the top five or six rounds of most drafts alongside Williams, who people expect to make them worthy of those picks.  Well, one can’t happen without the other, so if you took a late flier on Kitna, expect great surprise numbers, and while they won’t be those like Manning or Brady, they’ll be better than most.