By Todd Colburn

Key to defensive player rankings:  Due to the numerous scoring systems out there, we’ve chosen to simply project the basic scoring items for IDP players: Tackles, Sacks and Assists.  These statistics are pretty consistent across fantasy leagues.  While Int’s, forced fumbles, and passes defended are possible inclusions in some scoring systems, these are even more random and difficult to predict, so we’ve opted to stick with the basics.  As for our scoring system, we give one point per tackle, ½ point per assist, and 4 points per sack.  Therefore, if you’re in a tackle heavy scoring system, you’ll need to adjust accordingly, though the rankings theoretically should remain roughly the same.

 

How to read this stuff:  We try to make this weekly update as practical as possible.  Some folks like the forest, others like the trees.  You’ll get both here.  When it comes to team defenses, you’ll get the information you care about: potential turnovers, the defensive matchups, the shootouts, the toilet bowls, and the mismatches.  For the diehard IDPer, I’m giving you specific position players who are poised to have impact weeks.  If you count nickel defensive backs, there are 384 starters on defense…I’ll be highlighting about 30 players per week below.  In other words, we’re not covering everybody.  So if someone on your roster doesn’t get mentioned, you will hopefully get a feel for whether or not you should start him based on what’s reported in the team coverage.  If I don’t mention your player or his team, then he likely belongs somewhere in the middle of a good start and a bad one.  Some players just do what they do!  There are 3 indicators for a player being a good start:  1) if a player’s name is mentioned below (in a favorable light!), 2) if he is ranked in our Top 40 at his position for the week, or 3) if his team is listed in the group likely to bring in some turnovers.  So that’s how we do it.  Remember, this is NFL – nobody knows exactly how things will play out.  We look into our crystal ball, consult our super computers located in Piscataway, NJ, tap into our vast resources of historical perspective, and give you our thoughts.  We’re here to help you win your league, so use this information to put the best players in your lineup.  Enjoy and good luck!

 

Week 1 whirlwind defense wrap:  Look for low-scoring, defensive matchups in Green Bay, Tennessee, Oakland, Buffalo, Baltimore, and New York.  Shootouts are likely in San Francisco, Cleveland, and New Orleans.  Lots of potential mismatches in Week 1: Pittsburgh, Miami, New England, Indianapolis, San Diego and Philadelphia.  This week the honor of the toilet bowl game goes to Detroit @ Atlanta – it’s early to write these teams off already, but missing out on this game isn’t causing the country to run out and buy DirecTV’s NFL Sunday Ticket.  It could be ugly.  Now, let’s break the teams down a bit more.

 

Upside Team Defenses:  New England starts off the year with a relatively harmless draw – the Chiefs aren’t scaring anyone with that offense.  Look for the Patriots D to score huge in this game.  Pittsburgh is a great start as they trot out a good defense year in and year out.  Facing Houston is a nice opener for the Steelers, since the Texans have issues in the backfield.  Philadelphia faces the Rams, whose struggles have been well documented.  The Eagles D should be a big help to your fantasy team this week.  The New York Jets catch a rebuilding Miami team out of the gate – sorry folks, not buying the Ricky Williams Experience at all.  There’s not much there at the skill positions to stress the Jets too badly.  Indianapolis gets a Bears’ offense that is still trying to find its leader.  Even now, still trying… The Colts D will manhandle the Bears’ offense, with or without Freeney.  San Diego is an interesting story, what with the Shawne Merriman saga and all.  The loss of Merriman could be huge for the Chargers.  Regardless of Merriman’s status however, at least for Week 1, the Chargers won’t have any trouble getting to the QB, nor stopping the Panthers’ offense.

 

Downside Team Defenses:    You do remember the historic New England Patriots’ offense, right?  I know it’s been a few months, but I heard they were a juggernaut.  Little has changed for the Pats, and unfortunately for Kansas City fans, little has changed for the Kansas City Chiefs.  You do not want to be starting this defense.  With that little no-brainer out of the way, watch out for Cleveland this week: some folks have them as a sleeper defense – you do not want to test this theory out on Dallas.  Normally you wouldn’t sit a team like Tampa Bay; but facing a strong Saints offense in the hurricane beleaguered Superdome in front of an emotional crowd?  Something tells me to stay away from this one.  You might be well advised to do the same.  Finally, though Peyton Manning has been notably absent from football over the past month, do you really want to start the Chicago defense against the Colts?  The Bears’ defense probably won’t get blown up, but if you are expecting less than 20 points allowed and four turnovers…well, I think you’ll be disappointed.

 

 

Turnover Watch:  Here’s the quick and the dirty.  Defenses with likely high turnover numbers this week include:  New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Buffalo, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Arizona, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Dallas, Detroit, and Atlanta.  Those with highly likely low turnover numbers:  Tennessee, Carolina, San Francisco, Houston, Cleveland, St. Louis, Miami, Oakland, Cincinnati, Kansas City, New York Giants, and Washington.

 

Defensive Linemen:  As veteran IDPers will be well aware, D Linemen are all about sacks.  Sacks are tough to come by, so your lowest scoring personnel usually come from the lineman positions.  This being said, here are my thoughts on some key lineman who bear starting this week.  There are certain players that we will not mention every week because they ALWAYS should be started.  This group includes Trent Cole, Jared Allen, Aaron Kampmann, Aaron Schobel, and Jason Taylor.  Of course there are others that could arguably be in this list, but those mentioned are pretty much a lock - if you have them…start them.  As for this coming week:

            Juqua Thomas is a guy I could see picking up a sack this week against the Rams.  The Rams O-Line has been a weak spot, and Bulger is very sackable.  Trent Cole will likely see some double teams, which might free up Thomas this week. / Shaun Ellis is a guy I would consider starting against the Dolphins, which should be a real mismatch. / The Lions have historically been a passing team, and based on their talented wide receivers, we could be in for another year of Kitna flinging 40+ balls a game.  More drop backs equals more sacks… this week John Abraham is the beneficiary.  / Teams playing from behind have to throw more, and yes, more sacks.  To that end, start Robert Mathis, Raheem Brock, and possibly Kenyon Coleman (if you are in a deeper league). / Ray Edwards is going to be the beneficiary of Jared Allen’s arrival in Minnesota all year long – look for him to introduce himself to Aaron Rodgers this week. 

             

Linebackers:  If you are new to the IDP game, linebackers are where your bread is buttered.  You are looking for middle and weak-side linebackers who accumulate tons of tackles.  In a 3-4 defense, your outside linebackers will be good candidates for sacks as well.  Here are a few no-brainers that won’t be highlighted every week, but should be in your lineup unless they’re hurt or on a bye week.  These include Patrick Willis, Brian Urlacher, DeMeco Ryans, London Fletcher, and Jon Beason.  There are more, but we’ll say these are the best of the best and go from there.

            When looking at matchups, it’s good to zero in on the heavy running teams.  The opposing linebackers will get multiple opportunities to cash in on tackles.  So we’ll look immediately to the Packers/Vikings game, where Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk (possible injury) should have banner days. / Both the Titans and the Jags like to run the ball, so virtually every linebacker in that game is a start.  Keith Bulluck, David Thornton, Mike Peterson, and Clint Ingram look to have big days. / If you have Zach Thomas, simply start him regardless of opponent.  He’s a former no-brainer starter that just can’t stay healthy.  If you get 8 games from him, it’s a gift considering where you got him in the draft.  He will get injured, enjoy the 8-10 tackles a game from him in the meantime. / New England linebackers are tough – their defense spreads the wealth so much, that you don’t generally have a standout.  But they make big plays, and their linebackers often provide some nice points.  Mike Vrabel makes a good start whenever there’s potential for turnovers. / James Harrison is an outside backer that can get you a lot of nice treats – sacks, Int’s, FFs, etc.  He makes a great start against Houston this week. / Paul Posluszny is a popular candidate to make a leap into the guaranteed FF starter role – start him with confidence. / Finally, remember your linebackers on the wrong end of a blowout – in clock-killing situations, your LBs can rack up some good numbers:  Morlon Greenwood, Napoleon Harris, and Donnie Edwards are good candidates for this theory.

                         

Defensive Backs:  It may be counter-intuitive, but in the IDP world, shutdown cornerbacks are avoided.  We are looking for guys that make tackles, defend passes, and make interceptions.    Shutdown cornerbacks are often avoided by quarterbacks, so they don’t accumulate as many stats as we’d like.  Defensive back statistics are difficult to predict, so there are not as many no-brainers as with other positions.  A star DB might do very little in a given week and some no-namer might be the MVP of the game.  You just have to really watch the matchups, and concede that some statistics like Int’s are just going to be a bonus…you cannot plan for them.  That having been said, look to the safety position if you have to default to a position.  Tackles are somewhat predictable for safeties that consistently help in run support.  Remember, the rest is gravy.

            This week, we start off by looking at Bob Sanders.  He plays the run very well, but is quite versatile and has a nose for the ball. / Sean Jones of Cleveland will be chasing Dallas receivers all over the field, in addition to getting mixed up in the running game.  / Terrence McGee of Buffalo consistently registers both tackles and passes defended. / Mike Brown is an interesting start against the Colts.  He is a playmaker deluxe, but has missed a lot of time with injuries over the years.  This would be an opportune time to start him at optimal health, where you know he’ll have plenty of opportunities against Manning. / Sheldon Brown & Quintin Mikell are guys that should be started against the Rams, who surely will be throwing the ball frequently in the second half. / Richard Marshall is a guy who I like to have a good year, despite not having a starting job.  He does get on the field though, and makes some plays. / Atari Bigby is a guy that broke out a bit last season, who will figure into the Packers plans to stop Adrian Peterson. / Michael Griffin is a breakout candidate for 2008, a guy who will benefit greatly from the Titans’ pass rush.  Griffin should have a great day against the Jags, in both run support and in coverage. / A secondary I am high on this year is that of the Oakland Raiders.  Look for Michael Huff and Gibril Wilson to have big years playing safety for the Raiders, starting this week against the Broncos.

 

 

                         

Banged Up:  Here are the primary concerns this week.

 

DL – Jason Taylor is questionable for the season opener due to a gimpy knee.  Stay tuned for our update later in the week to get the latest news. Elvis Dumervil

 

LB – If you were like me and drafted Shawne Merriman relatively early in your draft, you obviously don’t love the news that he has two torn knee ligaments.  It looks like he is going to gut it out to start the season, despite the warnings of 4, count ‘em 4, doctors.  I hope he shrugs off the pain and has 15 sacks!  But I’m not holding my breath…/ A.J. Hawk is questionable for the opener with a chest sprain.  Stay tuned. / Joey Porter has some back issues that make his Week 1 start a risk.  He says he is good to go, but that’s what they all say.  Watch this week’s practice reports, and check back here for an update.  / Will Witherspoon has a groin injury that kept him out of the Rams’ final preseason game.  This is more severe than expected, so watch this one carefully.

 

DB – Ed Reed has a “nerve impingement” in his neck and shoulder.  I don’t know what that is, but that’s not good.   Needless to say, Reed’s status for Week 1 is in doubt.  Dunta Robinson starts the year off on the Physically Unable to Perform list. 

 

Free Agent Thoughts:  If you are looking at the wire for some deeper sleepers, here are my picks:  At DL, look to Leonard Little, yes, Leonard Little.  He’s going very late in drafts – if he can get over the injury bug, he could be a steal… At LB, consider Thomas Davis of the Panthers, following a move to the weak side.  And at DB, I like Michael Griffin of the Titans to make a giant leap to prominence in 2008.