The Superbowl Rankings can be found here:
Flex Appeal – Week 17 Lineup Help
December 29th, 2012 
Dish Adams 
Comments Off By Todd Colburn
Follow on Twitter @colburnfootball
Flex Appeal is our weekly look at the sometimes painful process of deciding who to start in your flex position. We’re going to look at four categories of flex starts each week based upon their “flex appeal.” Please note: To determine a flex play, I am using our own Crystal Ball Rankings for the given week, and I’m looking at least the 25th position rank or beyond (RB), 37th or beyond (WR), assuming a 12-team league. For those of you reading this for the first time, our categories work like this (see if you can spot the very clever tie-in with the title of the article!):
Marriage Material: This could be a free agent pickup or a player already on your roster that we would deem worthy of taking home to mama. Introduce him to the folks, feel free to include him in the family portrait – he’s going to be around in your flex spot (or more) for a long time. You two might want to look at getting a dog. This player has value for you, not just this week, but likely beyond this week. He’s a keeper!
Love Him and Leave Him: This player has some flex appeal, but you’re really just using him for his matchup this week. There are some red flags that give you pause: maybe he’s an injury risk, maybe he wilts under superior competition, maybe his last fantasy owner was a club promoter (RED FLAG!). Hey kids, with relationships like this, there will always be risks involved. Either way, this guy ain’t marriage material; you just need him for what he can do for you this week.
Last Call: Look, the bar is closing, and you’re desperate. Jonathan Stewart was a late scratch; quick, who can I add to my roster?! Let’s be honest. There isn’t much flex appeal here, but you need the best possible flex option in a pinch. We’ll give you the best of a rough-looking lot.
Marriage material
Ahmad Bradshaw (FI Rank: RB27, PP: 12.0) – Bradshaw is probable this week and should be getting more of his normal workload as the Giants put forward one last-gasp effort to make the playoffs. Philly has been tough against the run, but they are going to be without rookie phenoms Fletcher Cox and Mychal Kendricks. Bradshaw should find plenty of running room this week.
Greg Jennings (FI Rank: WR37, PP: 11.1) – Jennings is back. He got 9 targets last week, while catching 7 balls and a TD. He got two looks in the red zone last week, so the likelihood of him getting another opportunity to score this week is significant. Jennings is an easy WR3 this week and should definitely be used in a flex role if you have that luxury.
Michael Turner (FI Rank: RB31, PP: 11.1) – Before last week, Turner had scored a touchdown in five straight games. His last game against Tampa was brutal (13 carries for 17 yards)…but he scored a TD. Turner may not be a great RB at this point, but he’s scored 9 TDs this season – you can’t ignore him for fantasy. He’s a legit flex play if not more.
Jackie Battle (FI Rank: RB36, PP: 8.3) – I disagree with our Crystal Ball’s assessment that Ronnie Brown is the lead back in this backfield attack. On the contrary, I believe that Battle will again lead the way for San Diego. Battle rushed the ball 19 times in Week 16, and that should be the case again this week. Oakland has been clamping down a little bit in the running game over the last month, but Battle should be good for 50 total yards and a TD.
Love Him and Leave Him
Mark Ingram (FI Rank: RB28, PP: 11.7) – I’m just going with it at this point. 21 carries for 53 yards last week – not great production, but he got the TD again. Just by virtue of those 20+ carries, he has serious flex appeal. Look for another score (along with excruciatingly low yards/carry) this week from Ingram.
Brandon LaFell (FI Rank: WR42, PP: 10.1) – LaFell is marginally interesting, but he’s got a superb matchup this week. He got a red zone look last week and he was back up to his usual 7 targets. He should be able to do more with those targets this week and be flex worthy for you.
Jonathan Dwyer (FI Rank: RB33, PP: 9.9) – Admittedly, Dwyer is not too exciting of an option. He has, however, scored two TDs over the last four weeks. Cleveland has given up the 9th most fantasy points to running backs of any team in the league. I could see Dwyer getting 15+ carries this week and enough yards to warrant a flex start.
Santana Moss (FI Rank: WR39, PP: 10.8) – We listed Moss here last week, and it paid off with a TD. We think he’s got it in him again this week. Dallas has given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last 5 weeks. I don’t see Moss being a big part of the Redskins plans next season, with two young receivers in Leonard Hankerson and Aldrick Robinson, along with Pierre Garçon. But he’ll be useful this week, and you should take advantage of this matchup.
Last Call
Alex Green (FI Rank: RB46, PP: 4.7) – Green is probable and should be playing this week. On the surface, it looks like he just comes and crowds an already-crowded backfield. But Green has earned the trust of the coaches, and he should be getting his usual 10-15 carries. There’s definitely “usage risk” in this case, but the upside is that he takes his normal role and gives you a nice boost in your flex spot.
Emmanuel Sanders (FI Rank: WR61, PP: 6.1) – With Mike Wallace put on injured reserve, Sanders steps into a position to where he’s immediately flex worthy. His upside is 5-6 catches for 70-80 yards, and he is probably sitting on waivers. If you need to plug someone in for a desperation start, Sanders is one of the safest choices.
Lamar Miller (FI Rank: RB49, PP: 4.5) – Miller has supplanted Daniel Thomas, and he was very productive in his 10 carries last week. Miller is sharing carries with Reggie Bush, and he will probably get the most carries he’s gotten all season in Week 17. The Pats aren’t a great matchup, but if there is someone out there getting 10+ touches, you have to reckon with him for fantasy. Miller carries the risk of not getting as many carries as last week, but the upside is great for someone who needs a high-risk, high-reward option.
A.J. Jenkins (FI Rank: WR66, PP: 5.6) – Jenkins is a talented rookie who hasn’t been given much of an opportunity this season. With Mario Manningham out for injury, Jenkins steps into the role and I like him to be productive right away. That said, he’s shown nothing this season, so there is definitely a risk here. If you are desperate, here is an opportunity to start a guy with some great upside.
Good luck this week and thanks for reading this season!
Backroom Numbers – Week 17 Prior Performances
December 26th, 2012 Michael Nease Comments Off In analyzing who to start in a given week, one of the criteria is a player’s history against an opponent. We have gone back over the last couple of seasons and compiled some information that will give you the Fantasy Insights Advantage. Throughout the season we have listed players that have done well against this week’s opponents and also some that have not matched up well against teams in the past.
As is the case in all statistics, there is relevance in the numbers, but you also have to note other factors—changing defenses from season to season, injury statuses in a given week, weather, etc. These are the raw numbers with no attempt made to embellish them in any way.
I think of this as a tool to help determine whether to start one player listed over another. Remember that these numbers have been based strictly on what has happened in the past and are not in any way intended to project what may happen. We also need to realize that some players you just do not bench, even if the history shows otherwise
Below is a recap during the period of analysis, Weeks 3 through 16. the relevance of the numbers will be able to be seen as a trend. I will include them here at the end of the weekly report so you can easily reference them throughout the rest of the season.
Quarterbacks
Analyzing QBs who have had strong starts against opponents in the past indicates that 77% of them do have strong starts in the current game against that same opponent. However, QBs who have had weaker starts against opponents, have a weak game in the current game only 48% of the time.
Running Backs
Analyzing RBs who have had strong starts against opponents in the past indicates that 63% of them do have strong starts in the current game against that same opponent. However, RBs who have had weaker starts against opponents, have a weak game in the current game only 48% of the time.
Wide Receivers
Analyzing WRs who have had strong starts against opponents in the past indicates that 65% of them do have strong starts in the current game against that same opponent. However, WRs who have had weaker starts against opponents, have a weak game in the current game only 51% of the time.
Tight Ends
Analyzing TEs who have had strong starts against opponents in the past indicates that 60% of them do have strong starts in the current game against that same opponent. However, TEs who have had weaker starts against opponents, have a weak game in the current game only 47% of the time.
Sifting through the numbers we come to some tentative conclusions:
- If you select a QB or WR for your lineup that is projected to have a strong start based on historical results against an upcoming opponent, the likelihood of strong starts are pegged at 65% for a WR and 77%.for QBs. This is about a 2/3 to 3/4 probability that players will, in a PPR league with standard scoring, hit at least 18 points for QBs and 12 points for WRs.
- If you select a RB or TE for your lineup that is projected to have a strong start based on historical results against an upcoming opponent, the likelihood of strong starts are pegged at 63% for a RB and 60%.for TEs. This is a tad less than for QBs and WRs, but still in excess of 60% probability that players will, in a PPR league with standard scoring, hit at least 12 points for RBs and 8 points for TEs.
- If you select a QB, RB, WR TE for your lineup that is projected to have a weak start based on historical results against an upcoming opponent, the likelihood of weak starts range between 47% to 51%.
- Thus for players at all four positions, historical results are a solid indicator to help find a strong starter between 60% to77% of the time. Based on that trend it would be prudent to use this analysis as a key component in your lineup selection process.
- And carrying that point further, for players at all four positions, following historical results is not a good indicator of projecting weak starts. With a range of accuracy ranging at no better than 51%, it is not much different than flipping a coin. That is not a good lineup tool.
Based on this analysis, I’m going to continue this analysis next year for projecting strong starts for QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs. I will try to bump up the numbers of players analyzed at all four positions. We will discontinue projecting weaker starts. Any little edge we can gain over our opponents is a big plus.
If you find this analysis interesting, or if you should have any questions or suggestions, please email me at nease@fantasyinsights.com with your input. My goal is to give you the numbers you need to help you win your league. That’s what we mean by the Fantasy Insights Advantage. That my friends is Servin’ it up Chicago Style.
Game Capsules – Week 17
December 26th, 2012 Fantasy Insights Comments Off Tampa Bay at Atlanta Sun. 1:00 pm EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The best part of this game for anyone that has Bucs on their team is that after imploding and missing the playoffs over the last few weeks, these guys will want to go out on a high note and the Falcons have absolutely nothing to play for. Josh Freeman has been unplayable the last month and is only worth it in leagues that start two QBs. Doug Martin will close out his 2012 season on a high note and is a #2 fantasy back for sure. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are both worthwhile starting, but probably as nothing higher than low-end #2 receivers. Dallas Clark is a top-10 fantasy TE while Connor Barth is OK to start at kicker.
Atlanta Falcons
It would be unwise to think that any Atlanta Falcon starter will play for more than a half of this game since there is absolutely nothing to play for and several stars are nursing minor injuries that could use an extra week to heal with the
first-round playoff bye. Avoid all your Falcons except for kicker Matt Bryant.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Atlanta Offense |
7 |
28 |
5 |
11 |
27 |
89.9 |
287.5 |
| Tampa Bay Defense |
22 |
1 |
32 |
11 |
27 |
83.3 |
310.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Tampa Bay Offense |
10 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
25 |
115.2 |
243.7 |
| Atlanta Defense |
4 |
24 |
17 |
14 |
13 |
124.9 |
229.5 |
New York Jets at Buffalo Sun. 1:00 pm EST
New York Jets
What a clusterf#@% the Jets have become! It doesn’t matter who starts at QB because they all stink. Shonn Greene should be the best fantasy play for Gang Green this week and you can leave all their wide receivers off your squad. Jeff Cumberland will play TE for the real team this week, but shouldn’t be on yours. Finally, the Jets D/ST could be a decent play because outside of C.J. Spiller, Buffalo’s offense is really, really bad.
Buffalo Bills
Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 TDs against the Jets earlier this season, but also had 3 INTs and he doesn’t have the same number of weapons now that he had then. The only positive about him is that he should play the entire game. C.J. Spiller is one of the top plays of the week at RB while Stevie Johnson is the only viable play at WR as a low-end #3 or flex player. Because of the catastrophe the Jets’ offense has become – and because the Bills are at home – the Buffalo D/ST is a solid top-5 play.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Buffalo Offense |
19 |
6 |
25 |
10 |
22 |
139.6 |
201.2 |
| NY Jets Defense |
20 |
29 |
2 |
15 |
17 |
138.7 |
191.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NY Jets Offense |
28 |
10 |
30 |
10 |
14 |
121 |
181.1 |
| Buffalo Defense |
32 |
30 |
15 |
22 |
23 |
144.1 |
225.4 |
Baltimore at Cincinnati Sun. 1:00 pm EST
Baltimore Ravens
Another team with virtually nothing to play for that could rest a lot of their stars for the start of next week’s playoffs, Joe Flacco could be sitting at halftime so beware. Ray Rice is the obvious candidate to take off after a few series as will Anquan Boldin, if he even plays at all. Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones will take up most of the snaps at WR and Smith could join his fantasy star teammates on the bench in the third quarter. Dennis Pitta sits right on the border between fantasy starter and back-up, but if you’ve got a guy like Tony Gonzalez that you’ve been starting all year who could sit, Pitta is a sweet alternative. Justin Tucker is solid and a nice option at kicker.
Cincinnati Bengals
There’s a chance that these two teams could play next week again in the Wild Card round of the playoffs and even though Cincy has said that they will play to win, you have to wonder how MUCH they’ll play. Andy Dalton is only worth starting if you play two QBs in your league. BenJarvus Green-Ellis should get plenty of carries and the Ravens will supposedly rest their linebackers, so BJGE could post 100 yards and a TD. Play him. A.J. Green is one of those WRs that could only play for a half but still put up big numbers, so start him. Jermaine Gresham is a borderline fantasy starter, while the Bengals D/ST is a definite start.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Cincinnati Offense |
9 |
11 |
17 |
11 |
27 |
120.3 |
227.4 |
| Baltimore Defense |
13 |
26 |
22 |
14 |
13 |
132.2 |
242.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltimore Offense |
12 |
22 |
14 |
14 |
20 |
105.1 |
234.6 |
| Cincinnati Defense |
10 |
9 |
12 |
11 |
15 |
101 |
219.4 |
Chicago at Detroit Sun. 1:00 pm EST
Chicago Bears
The Lions are giving up a boatload of fantasy points to QBs lately and the Bears literally have everything to play for, so Jay Cutler should put up excellent numbers – especially because they’ll be playing indoors. Matt Forte is one of the better plays at RB this week, while Brandon Marshall should rock as he “takes on” Calvin Johnson. This is probably not the week to depend on the Chicago defense for yards and points given up, but they should be able to get a few turnovers.
Detroit Lions
With a disaster of a season coming to a merciful end, the Lions are all about getting Calvin Johnson 2,000+ yards receiving so he and Matthew Stafford are two of the best bets for the Lions this week. RB Mikel Leshoure should be able to take advantage of some injuries on the Bears defense and if you’re absolutely hard-up at RB, Joique Bell has value in PPR leagues. TE Tony Scheffler might be a decent emergency starter, but you might get a zero either way. And Jason Hanson will celebrate his 200th year in the NFL as a top-11 fantasy kicker this week, so rejoice!
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Detroit Offense |
14 |
23 |
1 |
16 |
19 |
104.4 |
302.1 |
| Chicago Defense |
3 |
12 |
6 |
6 |
16 |
109 |
210.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Chicago Offense |
16 |
12 |
28 |
9 |
19 |
119.6 |
186.4 |
| Detroit Defense |
28 |
18 |
11 |
12 |
21 |
119.4 |
218.1 |
Houston at Indianapolis Sun. 1:00 pm EST
Houston Texans
Matt Schaub isn’t exactly playing his best ball heading into Week 17, but the pressure to win and secure a #1 playoff seed means that the Texans won’t be letting off the gas pedal. Schaub threw one TD pass in their last meeting with the Colts, and that’s a reasonable expectation for this week. There is no reason to be using Schaub for fantasy…Though Arian Foster left his Week 16 game with an irregular heartbeat – and his worst performance of the season to date. Look for a mighty improvement this week, as Foster should carry the ball 20+ times (unless the Texans jump out to a three-TD lead early)…Andre Johnson should once again be a reliably good start for fantasy this week…It’s been a month since Owen Daniels last productive fantasy outing, but he continues to be Schaub’s #2 option; fantasy owners have no choice but to roll with Daniels, as this must-win game might find Daniels in the end zone this week…The Texans’ defense is a marginal play this week, as we could see this turn into a bit of a shootout with the Colts. The Texans sacked Andrew Luck five times with a forced fumble in the last outing. On the road, however, this is less of a must-start for the Houston D. There might be better options for you this week.
Indianapolis Colts
Though there is some turnover risk anytime you face the Texans, Andrew Luck is a pretty good starting option this week. He threw for 2 TDs the last time they faced off (Week15), but this time he’s at home. Luck has some additional upside this week…Vick Ballard had a surprisingly good game against the Texans in Week 15, so anything is possible. He’s gotten 18+ carries each of the last three weeks. There is the chance that the focus is on the passing attack, so Ballard is a marginal RB2 this week; should be steady, but not much upside here…Reggie Wayne is a no-doubter for your fantasy lineup, while owners should not be concerned by T.Y. Hilton’s weak outing in Week 16. No doubt you expected more, and you’ll get it this week. Hilton has scored a TD or gotten 100 yards receiving in four of his last six games…Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen keep taking targets away from each other, rendering both fairly useless for fantasy. The Indianapolis defense is only useful versus a terrible offense. Houston does not have a terrible offense. Look elsewhere for your defense slot.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Indianapolis Offense |
18 |
21 |
8 |
10 |
20 |
107.1 |
267.6 |
| Houston Defense |
7 |
5 |
18 |
3 |
26 |
93.2 |
232.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Houston Offense |
3 |
5 |
11 |
18 |
22 |
142 |
244.8 |
| Indianapolis Defense |
24 |
23 |
21 |
12 |
23 |
124.7 |
241.6 |
Carolina at New Orleans Sun. 1:00 pm EST
Carolina Panthers
This game features two of the better fantasy QBs this week because the opposing defenses are truly putrid. Cam Newton should be able to pass around and run through the Saints historically-bad D. If the Panthers could settle on one RB, they would be able to take advantage of the Saints defense and that makes both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart risky plays for you. Williams probably has the highest upside. Steve Smith should post excellent numbers as well as Brandon LaFell. Both are worthy of starting. Greg Olsen has a great shot at getting a score and is worth starting this week too.
New Orleans Saints
Carolina defense on the road against a highly-efficient Saints offense is a fantasy owners dream. Play all your Saints – especially Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles, Lance Moore and even Jimmy Graham, who is nursing an injury. Seriously … do you even have to ask?
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| New Orleans Offense |
4 |
24 |
2 |
9 |
36 |
99.9 |
298.1 |
| Carolina Defense |
19 |
17 |
10 |
11 |
18 |
117.9 |
217.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Carolina Offense |
22 |
9 |
15 |
15 |
18 |
121.6 |
233.4 |
| New Orleans Defense |
27 |
31 |
31 |
13 |
27 |
146.3 |
287 |
Philadelphia at New York Giants Sun. 1:00 pm EST
Philadelphia Eagles
In what will probably be Andy Reid’s last game as head coach, you can see exactly why that will be based on the number of Eagles that you should comfortably start this week. Other than LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin, you can safely skip all other Eagles against a Giants team that is at home and playing for their playoff life.
New York Giants
For those of you Big Blue fans that are waiting for them to “turn it on” and plow their way to the Super Bowl, this may be the week that they get a win, at least. The Giants will pull out all the stops to win, so your regular fantasy plays with NY are still startable – Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Lawrence Tynes and even Martellus Bennett. Ahmad Bradshaw has an injury so keep an eye on the injury/practice reports later this week to make sure he plays. If he starts, he should get most of the snaps over David Wilson (only 5 snaps last week). The same goes for Hakeem Nicks, who is fighting a knee injury and hasn’t practiced this week. If he plays Sunday, start him.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| NY Giants Offense |
6 |
15 |
9 |
16 |
20 |
115 |
249.6 |
| Philadelphia Defense |
26 |
20 |
13 |
9 |
26 |
122 |
219.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Philadelphia Offense |
29 |
13 |
16 |
9 |
16 |
119.6 |
233.2 |
| NY Giants Defense |
12 |
22 |
28 |
8 |
23 |
123.7 |
253.7 |
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Sun. 1:00 pm EST
Cleveland Browns
Brandon Weeden has a sprained right shoulder, so look for the Browns to possibly use Colt McCoy this week. With the team travelling to Pittsburgh this week, it is safe to say you don’t want a part of the Browns’ QB situation, whichever it ends up being…Watch the injury status of Trent Richardson this week, as he is dealing with an injured ankle. You would think that there would be no reason to start Richardson with the season basically in the bag, but Richardson is 50 yards away from 1,000, so it’s conceivable that he might try to gut it out in order to hit that milestone. If he is unable to go, Montario Hardesty becomes a desperation flex option, due to his exceedingly low upside…Josh Gordon has all but disappeared from the Browns’ offense over the last two weeks, while Greg Little has all of the sudden become a go-to option. Gordon’s slowdown was somewhat matchup CB-related (Champ Bailey), but it’s not like the matchup gets better this week. Due to either a gimpy Weeden or a healthy McCoy at QB, the Browns’ WRs should be shown your fantasy bench this week…Ben Watson has only mustered 3-4 games this season that mattered for fantasy, so don’t go using him now with your season on the line. He might have a decent day being the main target (as is occasionally the case), but his unreliability should keep in on the bench…The Cleveland offense held Pittsburgh to 14 points in their last outing, but remember that defensive scores count negatively too. The idea of Cleveland travelling to Pittsburgh, starting a subpar QB gives me more fear than Pittsburgh’s offense. Though Cleveland has been a good defense this season, I would bench them for Week 17.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger struggled last week, and really hasn’t looked the same since he sustained rib and shoulder injuries back in Week 11. Roethlisberger should do okay this week at home – this is a high-floor, low-ceiling type of game for fantasy owners…Jonathan Dwyer has been mediocre in his last few starts, but coaches indicate that he will keep the job in Week 17. Cleveland has been soft against the run all season, so look for Dwyer to have a decent day this week…Mike Wallace suffered a hip strain, so fantasy owners should think about Plan B this week. With nothing on the line, there’s a good chance that Wallace will miss this week. That means that it’ll come down to Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Brown has scored a TD in each of the last three weeks, so he’s a definite start; Sanders is only useful if Wallace is out, and even then, just as a low-end flex option…With Heath Miller out for Week 17, it comes down to David Paulson and Leonard Pope; you should choose neither. Look for the TE to have a very limited role this week…The Steelers’ defense is a good option for fantasy this week with the Browns’ QB situation so iffy. The idea of Colt McCoy coming to town should make fantasy owners giddy with anticipation. Start the Pittsburgh D/ST with confidence this week.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Pittsburgh Offense |
20 |
26 |
10 |
8 |
23 |
96.5 |
248.6 |
| Cleveland Defense |
15 |
19 |
25 |
13 |
21 |
120.6 |
247.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cleveland Offense |
24 |
25 |
19 |
12 |
14 |
97.4 |
222.2 |
| Pittsburgh Defense |
8 |
4 |
1 |
9 |
18 |
92.7 |
180.6 |
Jacksonville at Tennessee Sun. 1:00 pm EST
Jacksonville Jaguars
Mark Brunell wouldn’t return the Jags’ phone calls, so they are forced to trot out Chad Henne for Week 17. The only place you should be starting Henne, however, is in a 2 QB league. Tennessee is a favorable matchup, but Henne has been awful for a month – don’t expect him to snap out of it this week…Maurice Jones-Drew is being given a “pretty questionable” tag for Week 17, so expect more Montell Owens. All Owens has done is average over four yards per carry in each of his four games this season, but he’s never gotten more than 14 carries. I might look for his role to expand this week, making him a decent RB2/flex option…Cecil Shorts has been put on injured reserve due to a concussion, which is a bit of a blow for Justin Blackmon owners. Blackmon has been far better this season when Shorts has been able to divert attention from him. Without Shorts in the lineup, Blackmon’s upside is limited. Then again, it is the Titans – Blackmon will still get 10+ targets, making him a viable WR3/flex option…Marcedes Lewis is a mediocre TE option that should be nowhere near your starting lineup (or roster)…The Jags defense is never a good option, no matter how good the opposing matchup.
Tennessee Titans
Jake Locker has been nothing short of brutal these past five weeks, so even though this could end up being his best game of the season (due to a favorable home matchup), you don’t want the downside risk that he presents…It hasn’t been the best season for Chris Johnson, but he has salvaged what started to look like a hopelessly brutal season ahead. He should do well to close out the year, so start him without prejudice…The Titans’ WR corps has not been fantasy friendly – you’ve got three guys all with 500-700 yards and a handful of TDs. Divert that production to one guy and you have something. But even Kenny Britt has killed fantasy owners expecting a breakout. That said, Britt is the only Titan worth a start, and even then, only consider him for a flex position…Craig Stevens has been terrible with the TE role to himself. Don’t consider him for your lineup…The Tennessee defense may not seem all that appealing after the shellacking they took from the Packers in Week 16, but the Jags at home is a good matchup. The Titans are a decent option in Week 17 at home versus a weak Jags’ secondary.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Tennessee Offense |
23 |
19 |
21 |
9 |
16 |
109.2 |
220 |
| Jacksonville Defense |
29 |
32 |
24 |
18 |
19 |
148.1 |
246 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jacksonville Offense |
31 |
30 |
24 |
5 |
17 |
82.4 |
201.6 |
| Tennessee Defense |
30 |
25 |
19 |
12 |
26 |
128.4 |
240.6 |
Kansas City at Denver Sun. 4:25 pm EST
Kansas City Chiefs
Once again, Jamaal Charles is the only Chief worth playing.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have a chance to get the #1 seed in the AFC with a win and a Houston loss (which could happen) so they will be going all out to beat the Chiefs. The only problem fantasy owners will have with Bronco players is that it won’t take more than 14 points to bury KC, so once Peyton Manning throws for 2 TDs in the first quarter, he may hand the ball off for the rest of the game. Knowshon Moreno should be the beneficiary of a conservative game plan so he is a must-start. The same goes for Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, who have to start every week. Jacob Tamme is an ok start at TE, but the best start for Denver is the Denver D/ST, who will give up yards to Jamaal Charles and maybe a TD or two at the most, but nothing else.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Denver Offense |
2 |
18 |
6 |
9 |
31 |
110.1 |
277.1 |
| Kansas City Defense |
25 |
27 |
7 |
9 |
25 |
136.4 |
215.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Kansas City Offense |
32 |
7 |
31 |
8 |
8 |
139.3 |
180.9 |
| Denver Defense |
5 |
2 |
8 |
5 |
24 |
91 |
216.1 |
Green Bay at Minnesota Sun. 4:25 pm EST
Green Bay Packers
What may have been a nice game to end the season before the playoffs a few weeks ago for Green Bay has turned into a typical nasty NFC North game with the suddenly red-hot Vikings. Because the Vikes should be able to squash the Packers running game to almost nothing, Aaron Rodgers will have to carry the load. The Pack need to win and Rodgers completed 77% of his passes against Minnesota earlier this season. James Jones and Greg Jennings are your best bets at WR, with Cobb injured and Jordy Nelson just now returning to practice. With the injuries to the receivers, Jermichael Finley is a top-10 starter at TE. Finally, with Adrian Peterson being the only offensive threat for the Vikes, the Packers D/ST is a viable play.
Minnesota Vikings
Hmmm … Adrian Peterson ran for 200 yards against the Pack a few weeks ago and he needs about that much to break the single-season rushing record. Plus, the Vikes want to take the ball out of Christian Ponder’s hands, so start Peterson (duh!) and leave all the rest of your Vikes on your bench that play offense. Blair Walsh should be a good play at kicker, but obviously don’t put the Vikings D/ST anywhere near your starting line-up unless you get wicked-crazy points for QB sacks.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Minnesota Offense |
17 |
4 |
32 |
14 |
14 |
160.2 |
168.1 |
| Green Bay Defense |
9 |
14 |
16 |
11 |
20 |
114.3 |
226 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Green Bay Offense |
13 |
20 |
13 |
5 |
33 |
108.1 |
240.9 |
| Minnesota Defense |
14 |
13 |
23 |
10 |
24 |
113.3 |
244.4 |
Miami at New England Sun. 4:25 pm EST
Miami Dolphins
The only fantasy players wearing orange, green and white in this game are Reggie Bush and Brian Hartline – and Hartline is a borderline fantasy option at WR. Ryan Tannehill can’t take advantage of the Patriot’s weakness on pass defense. Davone Bess has been inactive the past two weeks, but if he can play Sunday, he might be a sneaky flex play for your squad.
New England Patriots
The Pats have a chance to get a first-round bye so they have something to play for and were embarrassed by their “performance” against Jacksonville last week. Remember that Tom Brady threw for 500 yards against the Dolphins last year, but considering how vulnerable Miami is against the run, you’re liable to see more Stevan Ridley than normal. Ahhhhh, who are we kidding? You’ll ALWAYS see more Brady. Play all your normal Patriot starters: Brady, Ridley, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez (Gronk probably won’t play), and Stephen Gostkowski. Finally, because of Miami’s problems on offense, the Pats D is a top-10 play.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| New England Offense |
1 |
8 |
3 |
23 |
30 |
136.7 |
295.7 |
| Miami Defense |
6 |
8 |
26 |
8 |
15 |
100.9 |
247.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Miami Offense |
25 |
16 |
23 |
14 |
11 |
112.4 |
203.9 |
| New England Defense |
17 |
11 |
29 |
10 |
26 |
106.4 |
270.4 |
Oakland at San Diego Sun. 4:25 pm EST
Oakland Raiders
Carson Palmer is out for the final game of the season, so it looks like Matt Leinert is the man, at least to begin the game. If he struggles, look for a quick hook in favor of Terrelle Pryor. It is safe to say, however, that you want no part of this for fantasy purposes (or otherwise!)…Another season, another disappointed batch of Darren McFadden owners. Week 17 doesn’t bring any hope, either. The Chargers have been tough against the run, and there is limited upside in using McFadden this week. It’s been about a month since Marcel Reece was considered useful for fantasy purposes, so keep him on your bench as well…Rod Streater is not as bad as his Week 16 line would indicate (2 catches for 16 yards), but with Leinert at QB, I certainly wouldn’t be starting him this week. Grab him and stash him in dynasty leagues, but stay away otherwise. Same goes for Denarius Moore – I wouldn’t trust any Raiders receiver with Leinert at the helm…Brandon Myers flew back under the fantasy radar just about as quickly as he arrived; it’s been three weeks since a relevant fantasy outing. That said, if there was anyone that I thought might have a decent day with Leinert at QB, it would be the TE. In a PPR league, I could see Myers having a passable day with 5-6 catches. But it is fair to say this is a desperation-only play for fantasy owners…The Raiders defense had no business in anyone’s starting lineup for the past 16 weeks; no reason for that to change at this point.
San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers gets a bad rap in fantasy circles, but he has often been useful for fantasy in spurts. This matchup with the Raiders is one of those weeks where he should prove useful…It turns out that, in the battle of meaningless smokescreens, Norv Turner wins with his Curtis Brinkley / Jackie Battle flim flam last week. Battle ended up getting the carries, but was not terribly productive (19 for 49 yards). Look for Battle to again get the nod, but fantasy owners should again lower expectations (were they high to begin with?). Battle is a flex option only…Danario Alexander stormed back to fantasy relevance with a nice outing in Week 16 (3 catches for 69 yards and 1 TD), while Eddie Royal maybe only threatened fantasy relevance with his 7 targets (but only 3 catches for 39 yards and 0 TDs). Alexander should be in your lineup, while Royal should be left on waivers…Antonio Gates scored his 2nd TD in as many weeks in Week 16, so it leaves fantasy owners little choice but to start him. Oakland is a top-10 matchup for fantasy TEs…The Chargers defense has hit-and-miss this season, but they are maybe the quietest Top-5 fantasy defense in history (mostly due to the 8 defense/special teams TDs that they’ve scored). Oakland is a great matchup, so owners would be wise to get San Diego in starting lineups this week.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| San Diego Offense |
21 |
27 |
22 |
4 |
22 |
93.1 |
215.6 |
| Oakland Defense |
31 |
21 |
27 |
17 |
25 |
122.5 |
248.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Oakland Offense |
26 |
29 |
7 |
3 |
22 |
89.9 |
270.9 |
| San Diego Defense |
16 |
7 |
20 |
7 |
26 |
97 |
241.1 |
St. Louis at Seattle Sun. 4:25 pm EST
St. Louis Rams
Most weeks, this would be an intriguing match-up but the way Seattle is playing on both sides of the ball right now makes starting any Rams player risky. Sam Bradford will be forced to throw the ball, but we don’t recommend starting him at QB. Steven Jackson has a TERRIBLE match-up but if you’ve gone this far with him, you almost have to start him as he’ll play the whole game at least. Danny Amendola actually has a decent match-up and if there is a shoot-out, he’s a decent #3 or flex player.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson is on fire and even though the Rams D is playing better, this is a GREAT match-up for him. Start him as he’s guaranteed to be playing the whole game. If you were to bench Marshawn Lynch for any reason, you deserve to lose. Even Sidney Rice and Golden Tate are viable plays the way Seattle is scoring in bunches, though Tate may also get you a zero if he disappears from the game. Steven Hauschka will have plenty of chance and is a top-10 fantasy kicker, and the Seattle D at home is always a must-start.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Seattle Offense |
11 |
3 |
27 |
14 |
22 |
160.7 |
189.4 |
| St. Louis Defense |
18 |
16 |
9 |
17 |
14 |
117.6 |
217.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| St. Louis Offense |
27 |
17 |
20 |
4 |
19 |
110.4 |
221.6 |
| Seattle Defense |
2 |
10 |
3 |
8 |
13 |
106.3 |
197.6 |
Arizona at San Francisco Sun. 4:25 pm EST
Arizona Cardinals
Looks like Brian Hoyer will take over at QB, which makes everyone but Larry Fitzgerald unplayable. Even Fitz isn’t the greatest play, but Hoyer should be able to get him a few jump balls to put up stats. LaRod Stephens-Howling gets a start at RB due to Beanie Wells’ fumbling problems, but against San Fran, that’s a ticket to fantasy hell.
San Francisco 49ers
Things should get back to normal for San Francisco, who will probably lean on the running game to take pressure off of Colin Kaepernick against a pretty good Cardinals pass defense. This might be the week to sit Kaepernick. However, Frank Gore should rock! Michael Crabtree is a safe start and a name that’s a blast from the past pops up again in Randy Moss, who will take over for Mario Manningham, who went on the IR this week. We wouldn’t necessarily start Moss for sure, but don’t be shocked if he gets behind the Cards secondary for one long gain. Careful starting Vernon Davis, who is injured, but Delanie Walker might make a good alternative if he is available on your waiver wire. Without doubt, start the 49ers defense which is smarting from the pounding Seattle put on them last week. And, as always, David Akers is a decent play at kicker.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| San Francisco Offense |
8 |
2 |
26 |
16 |
20 |
162.9 |
198.9 |
| Arizona Defense |
11 |
28 |
4 |
10 |
17 |
136.5 |
199.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Arizona Offense |
30 |
32 |
29 |
10 |
10 |
80 |
184.2 |
| San Francisco Defense |
1 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
14 |
91.1 |
201.9 |
Dallas at Washington Sun. 8:20 pm EST
Dallas Cowboys
Fitting that this is the last game of the regular season as these two team probably have the most to play for this week. Tony Romo is one of the safer starts of the week as he’ll be guaranteed a full start of 4 quarters. A healthy DeMarco Murray makes this offense one of the best in the league – and he’s healthy – so Murray will be a top-5 fantasy RB. Despite the injured finger, Dez Bryant has to be started as a #1 WR, but check the injury reports later in the week, just to be safe. Miles Austin often has the “dropsies” during games, but Romo generally gives him plenty of chances so start him. Jason Witten could be the top TE in fantasy this week. Finally, Dan Bailey will be one of the top kickers so play him.
Washington Redskins
Ohhhh, like you’re NOT going to start Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris this week? Both will be fantasy gold. Pierre Garcon will rip up the Dallas secondary with crossing patterns and might be a #1 fantasy WR this week, while Santana Moss is a good flex play. Finally, Kai Forbath should get multiple FG chances with the yardage that Dallas tends to give up.
| Quick Stats |
Rank |
Rush Rank |
Pass Rank |
Rushing TDs |
Passing TDs |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
| Washington Offense |
5 |
1 |
18 |
17 |
22 |
164.8 |
225 |
| Dallas Defense |
21 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
19 |
115.2 |
225.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Dallas Offense |
15 |
31 |
4 |
8 |
23 |
80.4 |
294.8 |
| Washington Defense |
23 |
6 |
30 |
10 |
28 |
95.9 |
285.3 |
Grab Bag Free Agents – Week 17 FINAL
December 26th, 2012 Smitty Comments Off Grab-Bag – your ultimate source for free agent pick-ups
Information is everywhere, coming from multiple sources in real-time. The best thing we can give you is educated opinions to compare with – or corroborate – your own. The Grab-Bag has an unrivaled track record of success that would speak for itself – if it didn’t have so many fantasy championships tied to the information you will only get here. The Grab-Bag strives to keep you at least one week ahead of your competition by separating the one-week-wonders from the future fantasy stars.
During the regular season, the Grab-Bag column is available Monday mornings with our earliest opinions on worthwhile pick-ups for the upcoming week. An extended version of the Grab-Bag arrives in the Weekly Report, available Wednesday evening. In Wednesday’s version, changes and additions from Monday morning are italicized or highlighted as appropriate.
One unique aspect of this column is, in fact, how early we make suggestions for the following week. At all times, these will be before your waiver wire deadlines and can lead you to grab a key player before the rest of your league has been alerted. This year, can you say, “Andrew Hawkins” or even “Albert Morris,” perhaps?
As a tribute to perhaps what occurs in Week 17 and why you should not have FF games that matter in this week, there were no players mentioned in the 2011 Weekly Report for this week that are worthy of mention as stand-out selections for this season.
In case your league is still playing, this has to be your championship week, even if it is a limbo week where you’re not sure which teams are playing their normal line-ups, resting players for the playoffs, or trying out players for next season. The good news is that for just about every team, seedings and playoff spots still matter, so it won’t be as much of a lottery as in many previous seasons.
Again, unless you are in a keeper league, every player on your roster should be either a potential starter, a back-up to a key player, or a player that would otherwise upgrade your opponent’s roster. Make sure to give your roster an extra look this week and cut all of the chaff because there is no tomorrow.
Every game this week is on Sunday, December 30th, with 9 early games, 6 late afternoon games and Dallas at Washington in the SNF game.
Every year brings a fair amount of change for each of us, personally and professionally. As always, I hope you all enjoyed reading these columns as much as I’ve enjoyed writing them and I wish you and yours a safe and prosperous 2013.
GRAB ‘EM
QUARTERBACKS
Writing this from the standpoint of any waiver wire QB pick-ups at this point are either emergency situations or in two-QB starter leagues, where the players below are still on many waiver wires and have reasonable match-ups in Week 17.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
Tannehill does not post massive numbers, but he can be efficient as he was in the Dolphins’ 24-10 win over Buffalo, throwing for 2 TD’s on just 130 yards, while also running for 44 yards on 6 attempts, with a reasonably attractive outing @New England to close out the year.
Nick Foles Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles
You could do far worse than giving Foles a shot at the Giants, after his 345 yards with one TD, and one INT, in the 27-20 loss to Washington. The rookie from Arizona scrambles well also, and it’s not clear that New York has much left in the tank for this season. Foles broke his hand in the Eagles’ last game, nevertheless playing through the second half, leaving the starting job to Vick for one last game with the Eagles, where you could see decent numbers from the now-healthy veteran scrambler.
Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Henne is putting up some impressive numbers most of the time, including 348 yards and a TD, albeit with 3 INT’s, along with 22 yards on the ground, in the 23-16 loss at New England, with a nice match-up @Tennessee to close out the year.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
This is more of a recommendation to start Wilson if you have him, rather than an expectation that he in your waiver wire. He was his usually model of efficiency with 4 TD passes on just 15 of 21 passes for 171 yards, with one INT, and 29 yards on the ground. On the other hand, the visiting Rams have played every team tough over the second half of the season, but you can expect at least a few scores from Wilson in the finale.
RUNNING BACKS
To the extent you are considering pick-ups that you might actually start this week, many of the backs below are your best bet, where if the injured starters in front of them are not able to play in Week 17, you have a chance at getting a full day’s work from one of these players.
Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers
Grant seems to have stepped back into the starting role for the Packers, with 20 carries for 80 yards and two TD’s, along with a catch for 34 yards in the 55-7 thrashing of Tennessee, with a trip to Minnesota on tap for Week 17.
Montell Owens, Jacksonville Jaguars
Owens has been inconsistent as the last back standing in the Jaguar backfield, but had a fine outing in the 23-16 loss at New England, rushing 10 times for 42 yards, while catching 4 passes for 77 yards, with easier fare at Tennessee in the final game.
Peyton Hillis, Kansas City Chiefs
It’s hard to say exactly what the Chiefs are planning for the final week of another fruitless season, but with starter Jamaal Charles rushing for over 200 yards in the 20-13 loss to Indy, Hillis also carried for 101 yards on just 15 carries, with a staunch rushing defense on deck at Denver next week.
Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins
Even with starter Reggie Bush accounting for three TD’s, Miami gave their rookie back some decent work in the win over Buffalo, where he carried 10 times for 73 yards, with a trip to New England slated for the final week of an up-and-down season.
Danny Woodhead, New England Patriots
Woodhead is hard to find on the field for everyone but QB Tom Brady, as he got into the end zone again against Jacksonville, catching two passes for 38 yards, including a 14-yard TD, where you can hope for more of the same hosting Miami in Week 17.
Kahlil Bell, Chicago Bears
Starter Matt Forte left the game with another re-injury to the ankle that has plagued him all season, leaving former Bear Bell, just re-signed with back-up Michael Bush ailing also, to fill in with 13 carries for 32 yards in the rout of the Cardinals. Bell is very familiar with this offense and posted some stellar outings at the end of the 2012 season in a similar role.
Jackie Battle, San Diego Chargers
Battle was the winner of the Ryan Mathews replacement sweepstakes, such as they were, grabbing 19 carries for 49 yards, and a reception for 5, in the 27-17 win over the Jets, where he should be in line for similar work hosting Oakland in the 2012 finale.
Ben Tate, Houston Texans
None of the Houston backs did anything of worth in the loss to Minnesota, but with starter Arian Foster leaving the game in the third quarter with an irregular heartbeat, check his availability for next week at Indianapolis, where Tate would be the back to step in if Foster had to miss any time.
Montario Hardesty, Cleveland Browns
Rookie starter Trent Richardson left the game at Denver with an ankle injury and will have X-rays to determine whether he suffered a break, with Hardesty the next man up at Pittsburgh if Richardson’s season has ended.
Joique Bell, Detroit Lions
The floundering Lions host the Bears, who still entertain playoff hopes on the outside looking in, where Bell remains a decent flex play, catching 9 passes for 73 yards, along with 4 carries for 10 more in the Saturday night loss to Atlanta.
Mark Ingram / Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints
The Saints have certainly not mailed it in during a difficult season with a chance to finish at 8-8, after knocking off Dallas 34-31 in OT, hosting an equally hot Carolina team in Week 17. Ingram posted 21 carries for 53 yards and a TD, along with a catch for 7 yards, while Thomas carried 7 times for 17 yards, also catching 7 receptions for 61 yards and a TD in the win over the Cowboys.
Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens
This call is a bit speculative with starter Ray Rice not going anywhere, including next week at Cincinnati, but after the rookie from Temple also carried for 123 yards on just 14 carries, including a long run of 78 yards, where he was just pushed out at the goal line.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Receivers should always be approached with caution because their consistency varies considerably. For waiver wire pick-ups look for repeat performances before slotting some of the players below into your starting line-up, unless team conditions require emergency use.
James Jones, Green Bay Packers
Jones continued his tear after 3 TD’s in Week 15 with another 7 catches for 100 yards and a TD in the Green Bay destruction of the Titans, with a chance for more of the same at Minnesota next week in a must-win game for the Vikings.
Jason Avant, Philadelphia Eagles
Avant remains the primary beneficiary of the starter DeSean Jackson’s season-ending injury, maintaining a steady output with 8 catches for 70 yards in the loss to the Redskins with a trip to the struggling Giants on deck to wrap up the season.
Justin Blackmon / Jordan Shipley, Jacksonville Jaguars
While most eyes are on Cecil Shorts, Blackmon could be available on some waiver wires in non-keeper leagues, with a nice match-up at Tennessee in Week 17, and a chance to improve on the solid 7 catches for 79 yards and a TD that he posted at New England this week. Cecil Shorts is out for the year, leaving the pass-catching to Blackmon and Shipley, who caught 5 passes for 82 yards against New England.
TIGHT ENDS
Lance Kendricks, St. Louis Rams
The 7-7-1 Rams and QB Sam Bradford are closing the season out with pride, where Kendricks had a huge day in the win at Tampa Bay, with 4 catches for 119 yards, featuring an 80-yard catch and run TD. The Rams can’t make the playoffs this season, but expect Seattle to have their hands full when St. Louis arrives for the final game of 2012.
Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens
Pitta didn’t post the superstar numbers of Week 15, but was useful enough with 4 catches for 56 yards, and a finale game hosting Cincinnati this week.
Delanie Walker, San Francisco 49ers
After the blistering hit on Vernon Davis that caused him to miss the rest of the game at Seattle, Walker is a decent bet for respectable numbers hosting Arizona in Week 17, regardless of where Davis plays, is limited or most likely sits this one out. He is always active in the passing game and makes a big play or two every game.
Good luck in all things in life, onward and upward.
Smitty
The Blitz – Week 17 – All Things Defense
December 26th, 2012 Todd Colburn Comments Off Email your questions to colburn@fantasyinsights.com
Follow Todd on Twitter: @colburnfootball
WEEK XVII
TEAM DEFENSE
Team Defense Rankings for Week 17
| # | Team | # | Team | # | Team | # | Team |
| 1 | San Francisco | 9 | Arizona | 17 | Philadelphia | 25 | Washington |
| 2 | Seattle | 10 | Atlanta | 18 | New Orleans | 26 | Dallas |
| 3 | San Diego | 11 | Tennessee | 19 | Cleveland | 27 | Oakland |
| 4 | Denver | 12 | St. Louis | 20 | NY Jets | 28 | Jacksonville |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 13 | Buffalo | 21 | Tampa Bay | 29 | Minnesota |
| 6 | New England | 14 | Cincinnati | 22 | Green Bay | 30 | Indianapolis |
| 7 | NY Giants | 15 | Baltimore | 23 | Detroit | 31 | Miami |
| 8 | Chicago | 16 | Houston | 24 | Carolina | 32 | Kansas City |
Less Than 90% Owned Standout Team Defenses for Week 17*:
*Ownership information based on ESPN standard leagues
San Diego (vs. Oakland) – 47% owned. San Diego has quietly (if not silently) been a Top 5 defense for fantasy this season. They’ve been helped by all the TDs they’ve scored on defense and special teams, but it proves that they are opportunistic. Also it helps that they get a fair number of sacks. This week, facing Matt Leinert, the Chargers are a tantalizing start.
New England (vs. Miami) – 78% owned. The Patriots haven’t scored double digit fantasy points in month, but it’s not like they aren’t useful. Even in a loss to the Jags, they still got you 5 points, depending on your league scoring. I like them to keep the score down against Miami this week, with the upside to force Ryan Tannehill into a couple of mistakes.
NY Giants (vs. Philadelphia) – 58% owned. The Giants have posted some horrible defensive numbers in the last two weeks, but no one is going to mistake the Eagles for the Falcons or Ravens. Michael Vick will reportedly be back under center, and I really like the upside for sacks and turnovers. There should be plenty of both. Great matchup for the Giants this week.
Arizona (@ San Francisco – 53% owned. The Cardinals’ defense has performed very well of late, with the notable exception of the shellacking they took in Week 14 at Seattle. They are at San Francisco this week, and I believe they can force Colin Kaepernick into some big mistakes. If you need to scan the wire to plug in a defense (if, for instance, you are benching Houston), Arizona is a good option with some upside.
Downside Team Defenses for Week 17:
Houston (@ Indianapolis) – 100% owned. This is about it this week. Most of the heavily owned defenses have “pretty good” to “excellent” matchups. Houston doesn’t have a horrible matchup, but they have been somewhat vulnerable lately, and I don’t like the fact that they are on the road. Andrew Luck hasn’t exactly been spectacular of late, but he’s been adequate for fantasy. He did particularly well against Houston recently, and now he faces them at home. There’s so many good matchups this week, if I own Houston, I’m going with a different option
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE PLAYERS
IDP Rankings – Defensive Linemen – Week 17
|
# |
D Lineman |
# |
D Lineman |
# |
D Lineman |
|
1 |
J.J. Watt |
11 |
Corey Liuget |
21 |
Juqua Parker |
|
2 |
Jared Allen |
12 |
Chris Clemons |
22 |
Jabaal Sheard |
|
3 |
Elvis Dumervil |
13 |
Charles Johnson |
23 |
Marcell Dareus |
|
4 |
Julius Peppers |
14 |
John Abraham |
24 |
William Hayes |
|
5 |
Calais Campbell |
15 |
Art Jones |
25 |
Everson Griffen |
|
6 |
Jason Pierre-Paul |
16 |
Brandon Graham |
26 |
Trent Cole |
|
7 |
Greg Hardy |
17 |
Cameron Jordan |
27 |
Tommy Kelly |
|
8 |
Mario Williams |
18 |
Ziggy Hood |
28 |
Antonio Smith |
|
9 |
Carlos Dunlap |
19 |
Cliff Avril |
29 |
Ndamukong Suh |
|
10 |
Geno Atkins |
20 |
Muhammad Wilkerson |
30 |
Vince Wilfork |
IDP Rankings – Linebackers – Week 17
|
# |
Linebackers |
# |
Linebackers |
# |
Linebackers |
|
1 |
Bobby Wagner |
11 |
Karlos Dansby |
21 |
David Harris |
|
2 |
Luke Kuechly |
12 |
Paul Posluszny |
22 |
Jerod Mayo |
|
3 |
James Laurinaitis |
13 |
Daryl Washington |
23 |
James Harrison |
|
4 |
Von Miller |
14 |
Lavonte David |
24 |
Anthony Spencer |
|
5 |
Aldon Smith |
15 |
Chad Greenway |
25 |
Thomas Davis |
|
6 |
Jerrell Freeman |
16 |
Brad Jones |
26 |
Derrick Johnson |
|
7 |
Zach Brown |
17 |
Russell Allen |
27 |
A.J. Hawk |
|
8 |
Navorro Bowman |
18 |
Patrick Willis |
28 |
Curtis Lofton |
|
9 |
Lawrence Timmons |
19 |
Jo-Lonn Dunbar |
29 |
Perry Riley |
|
10 |
London Fletcher |
20 |
Wes Woodyard |
30 |
D’Qwell Jackson |
IDP Rankings – Defensive Backs – Week 17
|
# |
Defensive Backs |
# |
Defensive Backs |
# |
Defensive Backs |
|
1 |
Harrison Smith |
11 |
Kerry Rhodes |
21 |
Ronde Barber |
|
2 |
Morgan Burnett |
12 |
Michael Griffin |
22 |
Glover Quin |
|
3 |
Quintin Mikell |
13 |
Cassius Vaughn |
23 |
Corey Graham |
|
4 |
Reshad Jones |
14 |
Cortland Finnegan |
24 |
Devin McCourty |
|
5 |
Donte Whitner |
15 |
Corey Lynch |
25 |
LaRon Landry |
|
6 |
Patrick Peterson |
16 |
Jason McCourty |
26 |
Dunta Robinson |
|
7 |
Janoris Jenkins |
17 |
Mike Harris |
27 |
Eric Weddle |
|
8 |
Charles Tillman |
18 |
Antoine Winfield |
28 |
Antrel Rolle |
|
9 |
Richard Sherman |
19 |
Cortez Allen |
29 |
Antoine Bethea |
|
10 |
Stevie Brown |
20 |
Reggie Nelson |
30 |
Don Carey |
Banged Up: Here are the primary concerns this week:
DL – Fletcher Cox suffered a concussion late in Week 16 and will be questionable this week. He has yet to pass the concussion tests mandated by the NFL, so watch his progress throughout the week…Chris Canty reinjured his left knee and will have an MRI done to determine the extent of the damage. It looks like he might miss Week 17, but look for more information later in the week as more is revealed about the injury…Tyson Jackson injured his foot in Week 16 but the severity is yet to be determined. He’ll likely be questionable for Week 17…Cory Redding suffered a quadriceps strain, the extent of which has not yet been determined. He’ll be evaluated further as the week progresses.
LB – Greg Jones was placed on injured reserve after fracturing his ankle…Jameel McClain was placed on injured reserve due to swelling in his neck/spinal column…Arthur Moats was placed on injured reserve due to an injured ankle…Brooks Reed aggravated a groin injury in Week 16, but should be ready to play in Week 17, according to coaches…Ernie Sims exited Week 16 with concussion-like symptoms. This could be the second week in a row that Sims has left a game with a concussion, making his availability for Week 17 a major question mark…DeMarcus Ware added a shoulder strain to his existing elbow injury – since the Cowboys are still in the mix for a playoff spot, Ware will try to go in Week 17, but watch his status closely and lower expectations if he plays.
DB – Phillip Adams suffered a groin injury in Week 16 and will be evaluated further throughout the week…E.J. Biggers suffered a groin injury and his status for Week 17 is in question. His status will be further clarified later in the week…Curtis Brown strained his Achilles’ tendon in Week 16 and is very questionable for this coming week. More will be known later in the week from the practice reports…Sheldon Brown sustained a concussion and will have to pass the protocols before being able to practice this week…Jabari Greer suffered a concussion in Week 16, and it is not clear at present whether he will be able to go this week or not…Ellis Lankster also suffered a concussion in Week 16, and will be tested per the concussion protocols later in the week…Leodis McKelvin was placed on injured reserve due to a groin injury…Christopher Owens injured his hamstring Sunday and will be evaluated further as the week goes on…Tracy Porter finally got back on the field but suffered a concussion almost immediately. His season will likely be over…Sean Smith injured his knee in Week 16, but an MRI showed that it was only a bruise. That said, his status for Week 17 is still undetermined at this time…Tyvon Branch injured his foot and ankle in Week 16 and will have the injury re-evaluated on Wednesday. His status is unknown at this time…Dejon Gomes suffered a Grade 2 sprain of his left MCL on Sunday and will test the knee out on Wednesday to see if he can go…Da’Norris Searcy injured his hand in Week 16 and will miss the season finale…Dre Kirkpatrick was placed on injured reserve with his knee injury.
Good luck with the final week of the season. Thank you for reading the Blitz season, I look forward to getting defensive with you in 2013!
Fantasy Stock Exchange – Week 17
December 26th, 2012 Michael Nease Comments Off For 99% of us the 2012 season is in the books as of the close of Week 16. A few are playing in championship games this week, bucking the trend of playing fantasy bowls in Week 16. It has been a long journey from September to the end of the season. Being in six leagues I met with both success and mediocrity this year. While there were many players that far surpassed our expectations, too many got hurt or performed poorly. Every year we complain that it was the worst year ever for adversity, but in this game, negativity is a speed bump we encounter with great regularity each and every year.
This week we will present the second part of a two week presentation on players that we spent high draft picks on this year and for one reason or another, left us wondering why we drafted them. You will note that most of these players listed come with an opinion on their 2013 draft status. Since this is basically a negative listing, the vast majority of the recommendations are to avoid players in the 2013 draft
On behalf of my wife Bonnie and me, we want to wish you all a Happy New Year. I have some number crunching projects in mind and look forward to sharing the results before the 2013 season.
We work hard to give you the Fantasy Insights Advantage. For help with your team, feel free to contact me at nease@fantasyinsights.com. We are here to help you win championships.
You can hear an abbreviated Fantasy Stock Exchange on our very popular weekly radio show on VoiceAmerica http://www.voiceamerica.com/show/1780/fantasy-insights that is now drawing several thousand listeners per week and we are having some great guests from the fantasy football industry each and every week.
Values Rising
SEE LAST WEEK
Values Falling
QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
Schaub (3733 yards 22/10 TD/INT ratio) is one of those QBs who are a fantasy tease. With Andre Johnson, they pair up to be a great TD tandem. In fact, he had a lofty 44 point game in 2012. Unfortunately, he has never really had a viable alternative to Johnson and he eked out only three other games over 20 points this year. His game that was 20% of his entire output will boost his stock. In 2013—don’t fall for that trap. Avoid him!
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills
Once again Fitzpatrick (3175 yards 23/16 TD/INT ratio) started out the season well and then collapsed at about the mid-point. It looks like he is on the way out of Buffalo. With so many good, young QBs pass on Fitzpatrick next year.
WR Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Rivers (3455 yards 24/15 TD/INT ratio) has always been a mid #1 QB. In 2011 he showed signs of slipping and many of us didn’t believe it. This year he proved that is not a #1 QB any longer. Believe it!
QB Eli Manning, New York Giants
One of the big surprises of 2012 has been the demise of Eli Manning (3740 yards 21/15 TF/INT ratio). Nicks has been hurt, but playing most of the time, Cruz has been double teamed; Bennett and the OL have been inconsistent. While his value is dropping, it would be a good time to obtain Manning in a dynasty league. He will almost certainly be back to his old self in 2013.
QB Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
Bear QBs have been mediocre at best over the last 50 years. Rather than upgrading the position, Cutler (2776 yards 18/14 TD/INT ratio) has managed to play down to the level of his predecessors. Sure, he and Marshall really clicked this year, but NO other WR or TE on the Bears did squat. Cutler is not even a viable fantasy backup.
RB Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons
Turner (217-785-9///19-128-1) is turning 31 in February and it has been painful witnessing his efforts this year. He has had only a single game with more than 20 points and has had 11 games under 15 points. His days of being a prime RB are over.
RB Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers
Ryan Mathews (184-707-1///39-252-0) is an example of a young injury-prone RB with lots of unachieved potential. With two broken clavicles and nothing, but mediocrity once again, he is one of those guys to avoid in next year’s draft.
RB Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
This is a guy that gets hurt each and every year without fail! In five seasons now, McFadden (197-650-2///40-256-1) has played in slightly more than 50% of his team’s games. Marcel Reece outplayed him when he got his chance. McFadden is another “avoid” player for next year.
RB Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
Everyone expects Stewart (93-336-1///17-157-1) to break out one of these years. After waiting way too long, I think he too is another player we should avoid and let our opponents select him.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
After a lengthy holdout, Jones Drew (86-414-1///14-86-1) finally reported and predictably got injured, in effect wasting his season. When a 5’7” approaches his 28th birthday and is coming off a bad season, I gladly pass on him and allow others to snap him up in the next draft.
WR Brian Hartline, Miami Dolphins
What value would you give a WR with a 57-761-0? Dime a dozen stats, right? When you add in a single 12-253-1 game to those stats, you get Hartline’s (69-1014-1) 2012 numbers. Do not get misled next year. You want to draft WRs with a higher upside. He is maybe a #4 WR at best.
WR Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings
You can have all the talent in the world like Harvin (62-677-3///22-96-1), but with injuries and chronic headaches, as well as recently disclosed relational difficulties with past and current coaches, Harvin is yet another guy to let opponents waste a 2013 pick on.
WR Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers
Nelson (46-658-6) has been plagued by injuries all year, after a stellar 2011 season on a high flying offense. He will be a great 2013 draft pick in a mid-round as most people will be overlooking him.
WR Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants
Nicks (53-692-3) is a great WR who just cannot stay healthy throughout a season. He averages about four missed games a year and plays many games at less than 100%. He is easily a #1 WR, but you are better off passing on him and selecting an alternative more likely to give you a complete season.
WR DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles
DeSean Jackson (43-700-2) is like that scrumptious looking pie on the table that when you bite into it, the apples are rotten. Ever since he teased us with 10-50+ yard TDs a few years ago, we have all thought that “next year” will be his return to greatness. He seems to have developed an aversion to get hit, which makes a WR worthless.
TE Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers
For a guy whose IQ never seems to exceed his annual pass catches, Finley (53-595-2) continued to be a rare form this year. On a Packers team that does nothing but throw and makes WRs and TEs wealthy, Finley bitched and moaned all year and probably talked his way out of town for 2013. With so many TE emerging, Finley is yet another player to add to the avoid list.
TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers.
After proving that he is a stud TE, Davis (40-543-5) slipped this year. After putting up 20-303-4 numbers over the next four games, he virtually disappeared. I would try to snag him as a high #2 TE next year as he still has the potential to deliver as a viable #1 TE.
TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
After several great years, Gates (47-526-6) has slipped in the TE rankings as only a mid-second round option. I would leave him for others to draft in 2013.
Deep Sleepers
We have been monitoring three Deep Sleepers—QB Brandon Weeden, Cle; WR Dwayne Harris, Dal and Chris Hogan, Mia (Practice Squad but waived—now a free agent) that we identified in Week 1.
First Deep Sleeper Graduate—QB Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns
WR Dwayne Harris of the Cowboys has been returning some kicks and broke away for a 78 yard punt return for a TD against the Eagles in Week 10. Over the last six games he has been added to the pass catching rotation and has a 16-197-1 stat line over that time. He will be a low end WR in keeper/dynasty leagues next year, but has little value for re-drafter leagues at this point of time.
WR Chris Hogan has been signed by the Bills off their practice squad and has been placed on their 53-man roster as of Week 16. He has had no statistics at all this year. Keep in in the back of your mind for next year.
If you find this analysis interesting, or if you should have any questions or suggestions, please email me at nease@fantasyinsights.com with your input.
My goal is to give you the numbers you need to help you win your league. That’s what we mean by the Fantasy Insights Advantage. That my friends is Servin’ it up Chicago Style
Good luck! Have fun!
The Red Zone – Week 17
December 26th, 2012 Tim Van Prooyen Comments Off Another fantasy season comes to an end, ultimately unsuccessfully for many, as only a few can win the ‘big game’, but hopefully the season at least provided the necessary amount of fun and respite from the doldrums of day to day life! With the season over, as promised earlier in the season, I’ll share my thoughts on the best of the best for the fantasy season, with a few forward looking thoughts mixed in where necessary. Meanwhile, I trust you each had a very good Christmas, and I sincerely wish each of you a wonderful New Year!
NFC Fantasy Quarterback of the Year:
Full Season Winner: Drew Brees.
Analysis: As was the case at the half-way point, this was a close, tough call, but Brees edged out Rodgers in a squeaker. Cam Newton’s finish was excellent, but his up and down early season doomed many a fantasy owner. RGIII’s injury and less than stellar late season caused him consistency points. Rodgers and Brees were, hands down, the best two fantasy quarterbacks in the NFC, but Brees, by a hair, pulls out the award. With almost 5,000 yards and 39 touchdowns, his 2012 fantasy season was his best, with the only exception being last year. Fantasy owners should continue to count on Drew to carry their teams for the foreseeable future.
Finalists: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, RGIII
NFC Fantasy Running Back of the Year:
Full Season Winner: Adrian Peterson.
Analysis: While Martin and Lynch were as solid as it comes, Peterson simply was unstoppable this season. Many wondered how his early return from injury would play out, and not only was it successful, it was phenomenally successful. Peterson will compete for comeback player of the year with Peyton Manning, which could be one of the tightest races in the history of the award, and his argument will be a strong one. He’ll likely break 2,000 rushing yards and has 11 touchdowns already, numbers that any fantasy owner would be pleased with. Peterson is this year’s NFC running back of the year with little competition.
Finalists: Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch:
NFC Fantasy Wide Receiver of the Year:
Full Season Winner: Brandon Marshall.
Analysis: This category had some of the biggest change in the finalists from mid-season. While Marshall was the one consistent presence, he doesn’t win the award, but rather gets a runner up spot in the final analysis. Bryant came on very strong in the second half of the season as a fantasy force, but his five single digit fantasy weeks ultimately gave way to the three that each Marshall and Johnson had. Then the decision came down to them, and this was indeed a tough one to make, but, by the slightest of margins Calvin Johnson came out on top, and deservedly so. The heavy difference in yardage made up, barely, for the difference the other way in touchdowns.
Finalists: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall:
NFC Fantasy Tight End of the Year:
Full Season Winner: Tony Gonzalez.
Analysis: While all four of the finalists in this category had solid seasons, none fit all the criteria for an entire season quite like the ever classy Tony Gonzalez. Graham would have won, but he missed a game to injury, which brought him up just short. Witten had potentially a better season, but with only two touchdowns, his impact on fantasy owners was severely less than the others. Greg Olsen had a solid season and will be a top tight end for a while.
Finalists: Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen:
AFC Fantasy Quarterback of the Year:
Full Season Winner: Tom Brady.
Analysis: The same finalists from mid-season ended up in the finalist spots at the end of the season, no change there; however, there was a change at the top. Tom Brady edges out Peyton Manning as the top fantasy quarterback of the season. The key difference was simple: consistency. Only Brady, of all the top quarterbacks in both leagues, had no games with single digit fantasy points. This was ultimately huge in the decision making process, as an underperformance by a quarterback is often the deciding factor between victory and defeat. Brady, with all the struggles the team faced with injury and other struggles, performed as well and as consistently as any quarterback in the league.
Finalists: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck:
AFC Fantasy Running Back of the Year:
Full Season Winner: Ray Rice.
Analysis: Charles rode a late season surge into contention, and at least one owner rode that surge to a fantasy championship – something I know firsthand after a seven point loss last week to the guy in our league who had him. Rice and Foster had great season, as expected, but both had stinker weeks at various points, and Foster’s worse came in most leagues’ championship week…not a good thing. When looking over the season long performances, Ray Rice emerges by a sliver over Foster, not only because of last week’s performance, but strongly influenced by it. Fantasy owners shouldn’t have been disappointed by either back’s performance, but the best of 2012 is Rice by a hair.
Finalists: Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles:
AFC Fantasy Wide Receiver of the Year:
Full Season Winner: A.J. Green.
Analysis: The cast of nominees did not change, but the winner did. Ultimately this group came down to one deciding factor – consistency – and in this area, one receiver stood alone, A.J. Green. While all the other receivers had significant disappearing weeks, Green had only a couple and those were still semi-productive compared to others. While Green had few massive scoring weeks, he was solidly consistent the entire season long, and as I always preach, the solidly consistent player is the best player for a fantasy owner, regardless of what that consistency is. In another very tight race, Green comes out on top as the best AFC fantasy receivers this year.
Finalists: Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, A.J. Green, Reggie Wayne:
AFC Fantasy Tight End of the Year:
Full Season Winner: Rob Gronkowski.
Analysis: Ah, this one is going to cause some second guessing. Gronkowski was the best tight end in the game this season…bar none. There was only one problem…he didn’t play almost half the season. Therefore he was of no use to fantasy football owners for the most critical part of the season – the end. With that said, his injury allowed Heath Miller to move into the top spot with a very consistent performance over the majority of the season, and especially of note, the playoffs!
Finalists: Heath Miller, Dennis Pitta, Rob Gronkowski:
…and the Score.
Again, kickers and defense/special teams were excluded here, for obvious reasons. I hope you enjoyed the analysis. So, while you eat turkey and ham leftovers, play with your new Xbox or PS3, and enjoy college bowl games, I hope you’re already planning for draft day…and another subscription to Fantasy Insights’ Weekly Report! All the best to you and yours and stay safe over the New Year celebrations, we want to see you right back here next season, in…the Red Zone!
(Final Weekly Report – Week 17)*
December 26th, 2012 Dish Adams Comments Off Sorry, you don’t have access to this content. Please log in or visit our store to purchase a subscription.
Grab-Bag Week 17 – Early Edition
December 23rd, 2012 Smitty Comments Off GRAB-BAG Week Seventeen – 2012 Season
By Pete Smits
Grab-Bag – your ultimate source for free agent pick-ups
Information is everywhere, coming from multiple sources in real-time. The best thing we can give you is educated opinions to compare with – or corroborate – your own. The Grab-Bag has an unrivaled track record of success that would speak for itself – if it didn’t have so many fantasy championships tied to the information you will only get here. The Grab-Bag strives to keep you at least one week ahead of your competition by separating the one-week-wonders from the future fantasy stars.
During the regular season, the Grab-Bag column is available Monday mornings with our earliest opinions on worthwhile pick-ups for the upcoming week. An extended version of the Grab-Bag arrives in the Weekly Report, available Wednesday evening. In Wednesday’s version, changes and additions from Monday morning are italicized or highlighted as appropriate.
One unique aspect of this column is, in fact, how early we make suggestions for the following week. At all times, these will be before your waiver wire deadlines and can lead you to grab a key player before the rest of your league has been alerted. This year, can you say, “Andrew Hawkins” or even “Albert Morris,” perhaps?
As a tribute to perhaps what occurs in Week 17 and why you should not have FF games that matter in this week, there were no players mentioned in the 2011 Weekly Report for this week that are worthy of mention as stand-out selections for this season.
In case your league is still playing, this has to be your championship week, even if it is a limbo week where you’re not sure which teams are playing their normal line-ups, resting players for the playoffs, or trying out players for next season. The good news is that for just about every team, seedings and playoff spots still matter, so it won’t be as much of a lottery as in many previous seasons.
Again, unless you are in a keeper league, every player on your roster should be either a potential starter, a back-up to a key player, or a player that would otherwise upgrade your opponent’s roster. Make sure to give your roster an extra look this week and cut all of the chaff because there is no tomorrow.
Every game this week is on Sunday, December 30th, with 12 early games, 4 late afternoon games and no SNF game.
Every year brings a fair amount of change for each of us, personally and professionally. As always, I hope you all enjoyed reading these columns as much as I’ve enjoyed writing them and I wish you and yours a safe and prosperous 2013.
GRAB ‘EM
QUARTERBACKS
Writing this from the standpoint of any waiver wire QB pick-ups at this point are either emergency situations or in two-QB starter leagues, where the players below are still on many waiver wires and have reasonable match-ups in Week 17.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
Tannehill does not post massive numbers, but he can be efficient as he was in the Dolphins’ 24-10 win over Buffalo, throwing for 2 TD’s on just 130 yards, while also running for 44 yards on 6 attempts, with a reasonably attractive outing @New England to close out the year.
Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles
You could do far worse than giving Foles a shot at the Giants, after his 345 yards with one TD, and one INT, in the 27-20 loss to Washington. The rookie from Arizona scrambles well also, and it’s not clear that New York has much left in the tank for this season.
Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Henne is putting up some impressive numbers most of the time, including 348 yards and a TD, albeit with 3 INT’s, along with 22 yards on the ground, in the 23-16 loss at New England, with a nice match-up @Tennessee to close out the year.
RUNNING BACKS
To the extent you are considering pick-ups that you might actually start this week, many of the backs below are your best bet, where if the injured starters in front of them are not able to play in Week 17, you have a chance at getting a full day’s work from one of these players.
Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers
Grant seems to have stepped back into the starting role for the Packers, with 20 carries for 80 yards and two TD’s, along with a catch for 34 yards in the 55-7 thrashing of Tennessee, with a trip to Minnesota on tap for Week 17.
Montell Owens, Jacksonville Jaguars
Owens has been inconsistent as the last back standing in the Jaguar backfield, but had a fine outing in the 23-16 loss at New England, rushing 10 times for 42 yards, while catching 4 passes for 77 yards, with easier fare at Tennessee in the final game.
Peyton Hillis, Kansas City Chiefs
It’s hard to say exactly what the Chiefs are planning for the final week of another fruitless season, but with starter Jamaal Charles rushing for over 200 yards in the 20-13 loss to Indy, Hillis also carried for 101 yards on just 15 carries, with a staunch rushing defense on deck at Denver next week.
Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins
Even with starter Reggie Bush accounting for three TD’s, Miami gave their rookie back some decent work in the win over Buffalo, where he carried 10 times for 73 yards, with a trip to New England slated for the final week of an up-and-down season.
Danny Woodhead, New England Patriots
Woodhead is hard to find on the field for everyone but QB Tom Brady, as he got into the end zone again against Jacksonville, catching two passes for 38 yards, including a 14-yard TD, where you can hope for more of the same hosting Miami in Week 17.
Kahlil Bell, Chicago Bears
Starter Matt Forte left the game with another re-injury to the ankle that has plagued him all season, leaving former Bear Bell, just re-signed with back-up Michael Bush ailing also, to fill in with 13 carries for 32 yards in the rout of the Cardinals. Bell is very familiar with this offense and posted some stellar outings at the end of the 2012 season in a similar role.
Jackie Battle, San Diego Chargers
Battle was the winner of the Ryan Mathews replacement sweepstakes, such as they were, grabbing 19 carries for 49 yards, and a reception for 5, in the 27-17 win over the Jets, where he should be in line for similar work hosting Oakland in the 2012 finale.
Ben Tate, Houston Texans
None of the Houston backs did anything of worth in the loss to Minnesota, but with starter Arian Foster leaving the game in the third quarter with an irregular heartbeat, check his availability for next week at Indianapolis, where Tate would be the back to step in if Foster had to miss any time.
Montario Hardesty, Cleveland Browns
Rookie starter Trent Richardson left the game at Denver with an ankle injury and will have X-rays to determine whether he suffered a break, with Hardesty the next man up at Pittsburgh if Richardson’s season has ended.
Joique Bell, Detroit Lions
The floundering Lions host the Bears, who still entertain playoff hopes on the outside looking in, where Bell remains a decent flex play, catching 9 passes for 73 yards, along with 4 carries for 10 more in the Saturday night loss to Atlanta.
Mark Ingram / Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints
The Saints have certainly not mailed it in during a difficult season with a chance to finish at 8-8, after knocking off Dallas 34-31 in OT, hosting an equally hot Carolina team in Week 17. Ingram posted 21 carries for 53 yards and a TD, along with a catch for 7 yards, while Thomas carried 7 times for 17 yards, also catching 7 receptions for 61 yards and a TD in the win over the Cowboys.
Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens
This call is a bit speculative with starter Ray Rice not going anywhere, including next week at Cincinnati, but after the rookie from Temple also carried for 123 yards on just 14 carries, including a long run of 78 yards, where he was just pushed out at the goal line.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Receivers should always be approached with caution because their consistency varies considerably. For waiver wire pick-ups look for repeat performances before slotting some of the players below into your starting line-up, unless team conditions require emergency use.
James Jones, Green Bay Packers
Jones continued his tear after 3 TD’s in Week 15 with another 7 catches for 100 yards and a TD in the Green Bay destruction of the Titans, with a chance for more of the same at Minnesota next week in a must-win game for the Vikings.
Jason Avant, Philadelphia Eagles
Avant remains the primary beneficiary of the starter DeSean Jackson’s season-ending injury, maintaining a steady output with 8 catches for 70 yards in the loss to the Redskins with a trip to the struggling Giants on deck to wrap up the season.
Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars
While most eyes are on Cecil Shorts, Blackmon could be available on some waiver wires in non-keeper leagues, with a nice match-up at Tennessee in Week 17, and a chance to improve on the solid 7 catches for 79 yards and a TD that he posted at New England this week.
TIGHT ENDS
Lance Kendricks, St. Louis Rams
The 7-7-1 Rams and QB Sam Bradford are closing the season out with pride, where Kendricks had a huge day in the win at Tampa Bay, with 4 catches for 119 yards, featuring an 80-yard catch and run TD. The Rams can’t make the playoffs this season, but expect Seattle to have their hands full when St. Louis arrives for the final game of 2012.
Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens
Pitta didn’t post the superstar numbers of Week 15, but was useful enough with 4 catches for 56 yards, and a finale game hosting Cincinnati this week.
Good luck in all things in life, onward and upward.
Smitty
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