Fantasy Insights’ Writers Throwdown
David Wilson vs. Andre Brown
Filed August 24, 2013
Todd Colburn (8/21/2013):
Hey Dish, in our Fantasy Insights Writers’ League (and most assuredly every other one of your two dozen leagues), you drafted David Wilson in the 3rd round (check it out at http://football25.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=47916&O=17). In other news, the sun rose in the East this morning. You, along with so many other fantasy experts, have already enshrined Wilson into Canton. What you’re missing is that Wilson isn’t the best running back on his own team. That honor belongs to one Andre Brown. The point of this entry into the FI Writers Throwdown is not to say that Wilson stinks, it’s simply that you can have the best back on the Giants in round 7-8 instead of 3. Brown is the harder runner between the tackles, he’s the better pass catcher, and he’ll score all the touchdowns. Wilson has a shot at 1,000 yards, but his rare shot at the endzone will be from 40 yards out (which he darn well might hit a few times). They both had roughly the same number of carries in 2012, but Brown was far more productive. Fantasy pundits have a strange fascination with the 3rd down scatbacks (Jacquizz Rodgers, anyone?), but Wilson hasn’t proven anything yet. Brown may have some things to prove from a health standpoint, but a healthy Wilson can’t give you what Brown will give in production on the field.
Dish Adams’ Retort (8/22/2013):
Child, Please. Take your Andre Brown in the 8th and file it under another wasted pick where you should have taken a good kicker instead. Wilson who never saw the field went. 71-358-4. Brown, who had a major role in over 6 games, went 73-385-8. This is the world beater Wilson should be afraid of? Take out Brown’s 2 td, 130 yard performance against Carolina’s league worst rushing defense in Brown’s first start, and he had a measly 255 yards the rest of the year. The 8 TDs are great, but you can’t score when you don’t play. In 2009 he tore his Achilles – injured reserve. Gets back on the horse in 2012, broken leg, Injured Reserve. Coincidence? He was the injury equivalent of DMC when he was in college. Foot surgery in 2006, 2007, and 2008 parlayed right into his injured reserve in 2009. He always battles back, but he ALWAYS misses games. As for Wilson, Dave is a stud and an NFL first round pick because he has an explosiveness that is rare at the RB position. He isn’t a scatback, he’s a power back with great speed. He’ll end up one of the top 15 RBs easily this season, and once Brown gets hurt he could perform at a top 10 level. It’s important to note Brown is now the one on notice for fumbles. Take your TDs while you can get them, that’s all Andre Brown does for you so unless you are in a TD only league he remains irrelevant next to Wilson. I’m drafting Michael Cox as Wilson’s handcuff to boot. Pick someone difficult to assail in our next round, please. This is too easy.
Too easy? That’s rich. Where do I begin? Okay, let’s start with David Wilson as a power back. So I guess he’s the first 5’9” 205 lb. power RB in NFL history then. Wilson skipped the bench press at the combine in 2012…because there’s no power there. And it’s not like he’s a burner either – he’s a mid-4.4s runner like 100 other backs in this league. Let’s talk about opportunities in 2012. Wilson was given plenty of opportunities in 2012 to take the proverbial bull by the horns, but he choked. He was given a carry in 13 games last season. In more than half of those games, he rushed for less than 3 yards per carry. We can all play the “take away one good performance” game: take out Wilson’s 100-yard, 2 TD performance against a terrible Saints defense, and you lose half of Wilson’s TDs and he drops to 258 rushing yards on the season. Andre Brown got an opportunity, and what did he do with it? He thrived. Yes, he got injured. And like every player who deals with injuries, you have to ask yourself if he has brittle bone syndrome, or is he unlucky? I trust this answers the question:
Like I said in my opening salvo, I don’t think Wilson is terrible. If he gets the job to himself, he might rush for 1,000 yards. But he doesn’t have the job to himself – a 3rd round price is too high for a timeshare back, especially when you can get the more productive half later. You’re telling me that Brown’s injury history makes him a question mark. That’s fine, but what if Brown makes it through the season unscathed? You’re going to take Wilson in the 3rd round on the hopes that his backfield mate gets injured? Seriously, this would be like drafting Marcel Reece or Rashad Jennings in the 3rd round because you KNOW McFadden will be injured this season. There’s no way Wilson has the job to himself for 16 games this season. You have to temper your expectations based on that. I may be higher on Brown than you, but if nothing else, I’m bearish on Wilson as a RB2.
Dish’s Final Word (8/24/2013):
Visual aids? When you are floundering it’s normal to throw spears at rocks. I have no idea what that means, but I am sure it makes my point. I have the luxury of using obscure analogies and wasteful lineage because there is absolutely nothing to discuss here. The pre-season game Saturday was the perfect example which proves my point – regardless of the numbers. Wilson has the big play ability that makes him a fantasy worldbeater. He can average two yards a carry for 10 carries because that 30, 50 or 84 yard TD run is coming. He’ll make screen passes into weapons of mass destruction. Andre Brown will have exactly the role he played tonight, and the role I continue to discuss. Occassional goal line carries and some short yardage work, and most third downs. Most important here is that the Giants NEED David Wilson. Their glaring weakness last year was speed, and Brown isn’t the type of dynamic back anyone has to scheme for. I can guarantee DCs will be preaching KNOW WHERE WILSON IS on every play. The defense rests, I don’t want to pillage any further, it would be like Spurrier at Florida pouring it on in a route.
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