Week 1 BLITZ

TEAM DEFENSE

How many times have you gotten advice to draft a defense with your second-to-last pick because the difference between the top finisher and, say, the tenth place finisher was two points per game?  That statistic is usually true…in a vacuum.  In one common scoring system, last year’s top finisher (San Francisco) finished with 11.6 points per game and the tenth place finisher (New England) finished with 8.9 points per game (Yahoo standard scoring).  2.7 points per game difference – that’s not winning anyone a league, is it?  Well believe it or not, 2.7 points per game was roughly the difference between Jonathan Stewart and Adrian Peterson in 2011.  The theme for the BLITZ is “Every Point Matters.” If you want to win your league, then you must tend to every position.  You don’t have the luxury of writing a position off.  Now that drafts are over, we’ll help you keep up with the defenses you should add or drop, and who you should start and sit.

Team Defense Rankings for Week 1

Standout Team Defenses for Week 1:

Philadelphia (@ Cleveland) – anyone who read our preseason report knows I’m high on Philly’s defense for 2012.  They start things off with a visit to Cleveland.  When it comes to good defensive starts, I tend toward the home teams.  However, it shouldn’t matter in this case.  Philly will find Cleveland’s offense to be no challenge.  Brandon Weeden makes the first start of his career, Cleveland may be without Trent Richardson, and Philadelphia boasts some of the best defensive backs in the league.

Houston (vs. Miami) – Miami is a bit of a mess on offense what with the terrible rookie quarterback making his first start on the road and all.  Houston will be a top five defense this season, and they open against a team with really only one weapon – Reggie Bush – and Houston will have no trouble stopping the running game of the Dolphins.  Shaky Rookie QB + 1^st Career Start on the Road = Fantasy Gold.

New England (@ Tennessee) – Some folks have bought into the resurgence of Chris Johnson due to one preseason game against Tampa Bay (who may end up having the worst defense in the league, by the way).  I am not fooled.  Chris Johnson is closer to the 2011 version than the 2009 version.  Jake Locker has not really improved his accuracy, and he could be susceptible to turnovers this season.  It stands to reason that New England will jump out to an early lead, and when they do, the revamped Patriot pass rush should be able to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.  This should be a great start to the season for the Pats’ D.

Minnesota (vs. Jacksonville) – I see lots of gloom and doom when the Vikings are being discussed by pundits.  And admittedly, they are probably not a playoff team, but they have done some things to improve their defense from last season (New coordinator, drafting Harrison Smith and Josh Robinson, adding Zack Bowman in free agency, etc.).  Once again, I’ll sound the “Bad Quarterback on the Road” alarm – Blaine Gabbert hasn’t yet had a chance to prove that he is any different from the stiff that the Jags carted out each week in 2011.  Until then, I am going to assume that Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson aren’t going to suddenly make Gabbert a better QB.  Add to that a Maurice Jones-Drew that will have all of one week to get ready for the entire season…I like the Vikings to take care of business in their backyard.

Seattle (@ Arizona) – Once again I’m going with a road defense to beat up on a helpless offense.  Arizona finds itself trotting out turnover machine John Skelton, winner of the Cardinals’ QB “battle.”  The offensive line in Arizona is not good, and the Cards have struggled all preseason to get the offense untracked.  Look for Seattle to play very opportunistic football, picking up a few turnovers in this game, while keeping the score good and low.

Downside Team Defenses for Week 1:

San Francisco (@ Green Bay) – like every year, the preceding year’s #1 defense enjoys the fantasy community’s collective benefit of the doubt. Particularly due to the fact that all 11 starters on defense are back (never heard that stat, have you?), people assume San Francisco will repeat as the top fantasy defense…you know, because that always happens, right?  The team that was #1 the year before is always #1 the next season.  No.  This week, they face a Green Bay offense that averaged over 30 points per game last season, and can light up any defense (GB averaged 33.5 points per game against top defenses Detroit and Chicago last season).  San Francisco may play the Packers well, but the downside of seeing your defense give up 30+ points on opening weekend is too great.  Sit the Niners and find a better option on the wire (if you have roster space – don’t dump the 49ers for week one).

Pittsburgh (@ Denver) – Call this Denver love a bit of “once more for old times’ sake” with Peyton Manning.  I think he has it in him to light up the scoreboard again.  Pittsburgh’s unique blitzing scheme does not phase Manning, and I believe he’ll be able to pick them apart.  I don’t think the Steelers will get crushed necessarily, but I could see the Broncos putting four touchdowns on the board.  Admittedly, not very scientific – this one is coming from the gut.  Tread carefully if you feel you must start the Steelers on the road.

INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE PLAYERS

For those of you man enough to eschew team defenses (eschewing anything, frankly, makes you a man) for the world of individual defensive players, we’ve got your weekly rankings here.  This will give you a three-deep starting recommendation for a 10-team league.  Remember that scoring systems matter.  The following rankings are based on performance scoring, which awards 2 points for tackles, 1 point for assists, 4 points for a sack, 2 points for a forced fumble, 3 points for an INT, and 6 points for a TD.  Email me at colburn@fantasyinsights.com if you have specific questions about your league’s scoring system.

IDP Rankings – Defensive Linemen – Week 1

IDP Rankings – Linebackers – Week 1

IDP Rankings – Defensive Backs – Week 1

Banged Up:  Here are the primary concerns this week.

DL – Courtney Upshaw was hoping to recover from a rough preseason in week 4, but instead reinjured his shoulder and is now questionable for week 1.  Jay Ratliff has an ankle issue that is going to keep him out of week 1.  B.J. Raji suffered an ankle injury in preseason and did not practice Monday.  He is questionable for week 1.  Austen Lane is still a couple of weeks away from returning from a nagging knee sprain and will be out week 1.  Michael Brockers suffered a high ankle sprain and could miss a month of action.  Dave Ball could not shake his concussion issues and has been placed on Injured Reserve.

LB – Brian Urlacher has the most famous knee in football at the moment – he is saying that his knee will never be the same, but he is insisting that it’s something he can live with and that he’ll be playing week 1.  Aaron Curry was placed on the PUP list which will keep him and his sore knees out of action for the next six weeks.  Parys Haralson injured his arm and was placed on Injured Reserve.

DB – Rookie Dre Kirkpatrick will require two more weeks of rehab on his knee before being able to resume practice, so he will be out for week 1.  Perhaps file this under “injured brain,” but I will use this space to note that Joe Haden has been suspended for the first four games of the season for substance abuse.  Louis Delmas is still dealing with knee issues and he is looking doubtful for week 1.  Derek Cox is still nursing a hamstring injury from week 1 of preseason and is likely out for week 1.  Prince Amukamura is still working through ankle issues and will likely miss week 1.  Walter Thurmond has been placed on the PUP list due to a knee injury and will be out for six weeks.

Free Agent Thoughts:  Look for some ideas for free agent pickups in Week 2…