Week one observations after rankings, a full pre-season, and many podcast conversations:
Mike Vick (QB, PHI) has been overlooked in most leagues and dismissed as too much of an injury risk, but he still can bring it with the best of them when healthy and should torch the Cleveland D . . . Russell Wilson (QB, SEA) makes his starting debut in the desert and should perform admirably because of his rushing yards – he’s #14 in our QB rankings this week . . . Arian Foster/Ben Tate (RB, HOU) were the hot topic on all of the podcasts this weekend because of Foster’s now troublesome knee. The growing consensus is that Kubiak learned from Shanahan and is a misinformation specialist who cannot be trusted. Even if Foster is active we are afraid of a very limited workload, particularly if the Texans get ahead, which they should . . . Stevan Ridley (RB, NEP) is one of my starts of the week because Shane Vereen is out, Woodhead missed practice time, and Ridley has looked like a beast in the pre-season. He should have 20 touches at a minimum and is a strong bet to score . . . Marshawn Lynch/Robert Turbin (RB, SEA) is another hot topic in fantasy circles because of Lynch’s back injury. The problem is that we won’t know Lynch’s status possibly until the late game, and Turbin is worthless if Lynch starts. Consider a waiver claim on Jonathan Dwyer (RB, PIT) or even Knowshawn Moreno (RB, DEN) if you want to wait on the Turbin decision . . . The big question in Arizona is which running back to start in their own backfield, Ryan Williams or Chris Wells. Beanie developed a hamstring soreness late in the week, which cannot be a good sign. Williams has looked healthier and healthier and is a great week 1 sleeper because it looks like he will get most of the load . . . Adrian Peterson and MJD should both play, but it looks like only MJD is playable. Peterson will be on a significant snap count even if successful, whereas Jones Drew will get his touches and the chance to earn more as the game goes on . . . Ronnie Brown (RB, SDC) or Reggie Bush (RB, MIA) – Bush is the forgotten man because no one believes he can repeat even a fraction of last year’s success, but he’ll be the focal point of the Dolphins offense. Brown is an excellent week one start with Matthews out – don’t look at his struggles last year – he’s not a scatback like those that flourish in Philly . . . Roy Helu, Evan Royster, or Alfred Morris? Hopefully you don’t have to start any, but if you do the guy I like best is Roy Helu . . . WRs Eric Decker or Antonio Brown? Decker has been Manning’s favorite target and Brown has been Big Ben’s – we like Decker to outperform Brown Week 1 because of the absence of Ryan Clark in the Pittsburgh secondary . . . Austin Collie/Marques Colston/Steve Johnson are all tough week 1 calls. Johnson has actually had moderate success against Revis historically, and my thought is that if you have Collie and he is active you have to start him because it may be the only week he plays. Colston is the best and most consistent of this group but keep an eye on the injury report and his sore knee – you’ll know early, so if he is active play him . . . Tony Gonzalez (TE, ATL) going into Kansas City is the no-brainer play of the week in a new wide-open offense where he will be single covered and highly motivated . . . good luck in week 1 – and e-mail me at email@example.com for lineup decisions or follow me on twitter @fantasyinsights for updates.