By The Fantasy Insights Senior Writing Staff                                                                                         (Dan Rose, Mike Nease, Bill Aquaviva, Todd Colburn, Mike Armon, and Sandor Kopitz)

Arizona        

It’s probably way too late in the season, but if you haven’t noticed, the Cardinals are one of the hotter teams in the NFL right now.  After starting off horribly slow, they’ve won 6 in a row and now stand at 7-7.  Any other year in the NFC, they’d be right there in the playoff hunt, but this year, they’ll end up a couple of games back.  They struggled a little against Cleveland’s defense last week and they’ll be playing in the cold and nasty weather of Cincinnati in late December this week.  They might struggle a bit.

I was vocally skeptical when the Cards made the trade for Kevin Kolb in the off-season, pointing out that he was exceptional in only two of his previous starts in Philly and then terribly mediocre in all the rest.  Too bad the Cardinal brass didn’t listen to me on the Fantasy Insights radio show over the summer.  They could be starting John Skelton at QB and have Dominique Rogers-Cromartie starting opposite Patrick Peterson in the defensive backfield.  Right now, whether it’s Kolb or Skelton starting in Cincy, there has to be better options for you in Week 16 of your season.  It wouldn’t shock us if the Cards use a high-round draft pick trying to find another franchise QB.

Beanie Wells is the beginning, middle and end of the Cardinals running game.  Cincy is very good against the pass defensively, but middle-of-the-pack against the run.  Wells is a low-end #2 RB or flex player this week.  Look for him to get around 85 total yards with a TD.  Not a bad start.

You have to start Larry Fitzgerald every week just because he is elite and can go off at any time.  Even when Fitz is bad, he’s pretty good.  He’s been better with Skelton at QB, but no matter who plays, Fitz should have around 6 catches for 80 yards.  The problem from a fantasy standpoint with Early Doucet or Andre Roberts is trying to figure out which one will have a decent game that week.  Last week was Roberts with a 6-60-1 stat line.  You’re better off skipping both of these guys.

Don’t bother with either Todd Heap or Jeff King at TE.  Yes, one of them might have a good game from time to time, but more than likely, you’ll get a couple of points out of them.

Ignore Jay Feely at kicker.

 

Cincinnati   

The Bengals are showing their inexperience coming down the stretch and they are losing to good teams.  They are basically playing well, but they cannot seem to put some of these teams away.  Last week was almost a disaster for Cincy as they almost lost to the Rams.  Worse, they almost lost rookie superstar, A.J. Green, who separated his shoulder in the game, but kept playing.  Something tells me that this is going to be a low-scoring game and tough on fantasy owners – especially if Green cannot go.

Andy Dalton now has three consecutive games where he’s thrown for less than 200 yards.  We love Dalton’s long-term success, but you cannot play him this week if you’re going for your fantasy championship.  Don’t expect more than 210 yards passing and 2 TD – and that’s if Green plays.

The big gun this week for Cincy will be Cedric Benson, who will carry the ball 20+ times.  Yeah, it’s getting to the end of the season and Benson can barely break 3.5 yards per carry, but if you get the ball enough, who cares what your ypc is?  Start Benson and he’ll reward you with 90 yards rushing and a TD.

Obviously we’ll have to monitor Green’s status for the week, and we’re pretty sure we won’t know until very late in the week.  It’s a short week and it’s doubtful the Bengals want to take a chance on severely injuring their stud receiver when the playoffs are pretty much a pipe dream now.  We expect Green to sit which means Jerome Simpson will be the main beneficiary.  If Green sits, Simpson is worth a start as a flex/#4 fantasy WR.

Jermaine Gresham is a mid-range #2 fantasy TE this week.  We don’t see him getting much more than 5 catches for 40 yards.  Arizona doesn’t give up too much to TEs on defense.

I’ve been dogging Mike Nugent for most of the year because he’s been kind of … blah.  But in the last two weeks, he’s had 6 FGs and 3 XPs and that’s not bad.  Arizona gives up a ton of fantasy points to kickers so if Nugent is on your roster and you’re not worried about weather, start him.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Arizona Offense	25	24	19	11	18	102.5	218.1
Cincinnati Defense	10	9	11	12	18	99.6	214.4
Cincinnati Offense	18	19	20	9	19	107.7	212.4
Arizona Defense	17	18	22	14	14	117.4	240.6

Chicago

A few short weeks ago this loomed as one of the premier games of the season, fitting to be played before a national TV audience on Christmas Day. Now, after losing both Cutler and Forte, it now has all the luster of a pre-season game in August. The 7-7 Bears, who will likely be eliminated from the playoff race before the game even begins, have played terribly with Caleb Hanie at QB. Now, after stretching their loss skein to four, they play the Packers who at least have one thing in common with the Bears, having also been beaten by the Chief.

QB Caleb Hanie (10/23-111 with a 1/0 TD/INT ratio) has been groomed to do the job he has miserably failed at for four seasons now. Once again GM Jerry Angelo has been shown to be the biggest player personnel flop around. Oddly enough, most of the criticism in recent weeks has been centered on Angelo and offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Lovie Smith is being seen as about as much a victim as the rest of us. Whether Hanie, or 3^rd stringer Josh McCown gets the call at QB this week matters very little at this point. Neither one belongs anyone near a fantasy lineup.

RB Marion Barber (11-33-0) was in the background role this week after personally giving away the game to the Denver Tebows in Week 14. Kahlil Bell (15-65-0///5-43-1) was given a chance to show what he could do and he was impressive. He is the only player on this woeful team that deserves any fantasy consideration whatsoever right now. Look for about 100 yards and a TD from him against Green Bay.

With WR Johnny Knox on IR and Devin Hester hurting, and factoring in the dubious QB situation, none of the group including Dane Sanzenbacher (2-26-0), Earl Bennett (1-20-0) or Roy Williams who did nothing against the Seahawks are likely to do much this week. They are too risky to consider for a playoffs or fantasy bowl lineup.

TE Kellen Davis (1-10) has not been a fantasy quality player all year and is even less so now.

PK Robbie Gould is good, but he has to get opportunities. This offense does not offer him many scoring chances. Leave him on the shelf until next year.

The Bears defense has been good all year, but the Packers don’t yield many turnovers. This could be a real clunker of a game.

 

Green Bay  

With their shot at a perfect season gone, all the Packers have to look forward to beating their archrival Bears to get back the magic they momentarily lost against the Chiefs. The entire team looked out of synch and the Chiefs played them tough. On a night expected to be in the low 20’s, the weather should not be a factor. Green Bay is seeking to regain their momentum and stay healthy.

QB Aaron Rodgers (17/35-235 with a 1/0 TD/INT ratio, along with 32 yards rushing and a TD on the ground) had a game that was very average, for just about any other QB but himself and a select few. With Greg Jennings gone with an injury, the well-oiled offense was just not firing on all cylinders. Nobody else filled the void created by his absence and the Chiefs played an inspired game. Expect Rodgers to get back to the 300 yard, three TD level. Also, if this game turns into a rout, look for him to get some bench time watching Matt Flynn.

RB Ryan Grant (12-66-0///4-53-0) is too old and slow, but so far nobody has been able to force him to the bench for good. All he does is keep producing when given the opportunity. James Starks and Brandon Saine remain questionable with injuries. Check their status later in the week. Grant should have about 80 yards this week and perhaps a TD. John Kuhn won’t have any stats to speak of, but it is possible for him to get a short TD at the goal line.

WRs Jordy Nelson (2-29-0), James Jones (2-17-0) and Donald Driver (2-7-1) were outplayed by rookie Randall Cobb (4-53-0). Expect them to rebound against the injury depleted Bears, who are so weak at safety that Rodgers should pick them apart. Tarvaris Jackson sure did. Look for Nelson to have about a 6-90-1 games and the rest to add 3-4 catches for 30-40 yards each with Jones adding a TD.

TE Jermichael Finley (3-83-0) always does well against the Bears. Expect about a 5-70-1 game this week.

PK Mason Crosby has five FGs and 11 XPs over the last three weeks, making him a great fantasy pick for your lineup this week.

The Packers defense should feast on the Bears this week. A pick-6 or two, plus a slew of sacks are not out of the question. Just look what Seattle did last week.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Chicago Offense	16	10	25	10	16	123.1	189.4
Green Bay Defense	15	12	31	10	23	108.4	289.4
Green Bay Offense	1	25	4	12	40	99.7	298.1
Chicago Defense	11	8	27	9	17	98.7	254.4

Cleveland

After losing a heart-breaker in overtime to the Cards, the Cleveland Browns now find themselves with two more weeks of practices to get through and then a blissful off-season to work out their bad karma.  Their offense is a mess and the defense is good enough to make the playoffs.  Well, their PASS defense is good enough to make the playoffs.  The run defense needs a little work.  But what they really need most is an actual franchise QB, because Colt McCoy just ain’t it.

McCoy probably won’t play for the rest of the year due to his concussion symptoms, so we’re guessing that Seneca Wallace gets the last two starts.  That’s great for Wallace, but a pissed-off Ravens defense that just got undressed by San Diego on national TV last Sunday night isn’t the group we’d want our QB playing for a fantasy championship.  Wallace has some athletic skills, but not many NFL QB skills.  Skip him.

I owe an apology to any of you that listened to me on last weeks’ radio show when the subject of playing Peyton Hillis came up.  I said on-air that I couldn’t trust Hillis to play for my team in Week 15 with my fantasy playoffs on the line.  Of course, Hillis goes out and gets 99 yards rushing and a TD (plus 9 yds receiving), so I’m sorry if you listened to me and benched Hillis.  Having said that, playing Hillis against the Ravens is crazy.  There’s a reason that they’re in the top-2 in rush defense and unless Hillis gets the ball 30 times, he won’t get 100 yards.  The reason you cannot TRUST Hillis is that he could come up lame like he has several times already this year.  Neither Montario Hardesty nor Chris Ogbonnaya are worth starting.

Greg Little had his good game for the year.  With an entire off-season to practice and train, we like him for next year (if the Browns get a real NFL QB).  Don’t expect two good games in a row from any Browns receiver, especially in Baltimore.

Ben Watson went on the IR last week so Evan Moore is the only TE in town.  So he goes out and gets 0 yards on 0 catches.  Expect more of the same this week.

Phil Dawson is a horrible play at kicker for you.  Skip him.

 

Baltimore

Even the best teams get their pants pulled down to their ankles once a year and last week was Baltimore’s turn in San Diego.  The Chargers are doing one of their late-season surges and the Ravens have played well for more  than a month and were due to get spanked.  It happened and now the Ravens can regain control of the AFC North by beating up on a terrible Browns offense.  This could be a shut-out.

Don’t bother playing Joe Flacco at QB.  He’s pretty much a JAG (Just A Guy) at fantasy quarterback and the Browns can definitely play the pass well.  Flacco won’t have more than 230 yards passing with maybe one touchdown.   Skip him.

On the other hand, Ray Rice should feast on the Brownies poor run defense.  The one that gives up a serious number of fantasy points to running backs.  After the Ravens last loss, Rice went nuts for a few weeks.  It’ll happen again just in time for your fantasy championship.  Look for 110 yards and 1 TD.  Don’t bother with Ricky Williams.

Anquan Boldin is living off of his name and not his production for fantasy purposes.  He’s basically a guy that gets 4-5 catches for 50-or so yards.  The guy to play in Baltimore now is Torrey Smith.  Well, maybe not this week.  Chances are good that Smith will draw Joe Haden in coverage so his output may be limited this week.  Still, he always has upside, so if you’re hurting at WR, Smith should be able to get you 4 catches for 60 yards.

I’ve said it almost every week about the Ravens TEs: Both Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson combined make a pretty good tight end, but you cannot start either one by themselves.

Billy Cundiff’s leg injury affected him last Sunday night.  Keep an eye out on the Ravens to see if they sign another kicker to replace Cundiff until the playoff start.  If they don’t, Cundiff will be safe to start.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Cleveland Offense	30	30	22	4	15	95.9	198.8
Baltimore Defense	4	2	5	9	10	90	197.9
Baltimore Offense	12	16	16	13	18	115.2	226.8
Cleveland Defense	7	31	3	11	14	145.4	188.4

Denver

 

Whoever would think that Tim Tebow is human and could lose a game?  Finally after the impressive 6-game winning streak that Tebow led, the Broncos went down to the Patriots.  There was a lot of hype that the Broncos could pull off the very tough feat of beating the Patriots, especially in a late-game fashion like they have been all season, but they did not live up to the expectations.  Now the Broncos travel cross country to take on the fading Buffalo Bills and look to clinch a playoff spot and win the AFC West.

 

Tim Tebow should be easily able to handle the Bills this week as they have dropped their last seven games.  He threw for nearly 200 yards and ran for 93, scoring two rushing touchdowns.  He has become a relevant fantasy option once again.  Now taking on the Bills in possibly some terrible weather, Tebow is going to have the load on his back and will probably run more than the 12 times that he did last game.  He is a low end No. 1 option, but since this is the last week of the season and probably the championship game stick with what you have, and if you have Tebow, then good luck.

 

Willis McGahee left the game a little shaken up in the third quarter and didn’t play at all in the fourth quarter, but Coach John Fox just stated that the reason that McGahee didn’t play was that they were in pass mode and were not going to use their running game.  Lance Ball did step in and ran for 64 yards and a TD and should get a decent amount of carries this week.  With Buffalo having a poor run defense, get McGahee starting in all leagues and Ball is a low end No. 3 option.

 

Demaryius Thomas is Tebow’s favorite target and it has been getting more and more obvious as the season has progressed.  He was targeted 13 times this game and caught 7 balls for 116 yards.  He is a low end No.1 option.  Eric Decker is a good option too, but he was lost in the game against the Pats.  He only caught one ball for 22 yards.  He is normally a No. 3 option, but be careful with him this week because of the possible bad weather they may not be throwing the ball too much.

 

Daniel Fells would be the only viable TE option for the Broncos, but you should be able to find a better option out there.

 

 

Buffalo

 

After a hot start, we can officially say that the Bills blew it this season.  There is really nothing else to say.  They cannot get their act together and the scapegoat is the Fitzpatrick contract.  But besides that, they have a mission this week to prove themselves and to prevent Tebow from the playoffs this week.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a turnover machine recently.  Most of his numbers have dropped significantly, but his yards/game has kept up.  He should finish with a 3,800-4,000 yards on the season which is very good for him.  He plainly has just not been effective.  Denver’s secondary is relatively strong, so Fitzpatrick will not be airing the ball out much this game and with the weather possibly being a factor, don’t expect the usual 40 passing attempts that he has been penciled in for this year.  He is a No. 2 QB option.

 

CJ Spiller has taken the lead role for the Bills since Fred Jackson went down.  He went for 91 yards and a touchdown last week on just 11 carries.  Those are pretty good numbers, and he should get a good amount more carries next week unless he fails to be effective early in the game.  Spiller also caught 9 balls for 76 yards and another touchdown.  He is a #2 fantasy RB option.  Tashard Choice is the backup now for the Bills, but he should not be started in fantasy play.

 

Stevie Johnson caught 5 passes for 82 yards last week.  He has been a very consistent option for the Bills and should be looked at as a No. 2 WR option for this upcoming week.  He was pulled from last weeks’ game in the fourth quarter due to a groin injury, but right now, it looks like he’ll play.  The bad part is that he’ll probably be covered by Champ Bailey.   David Nelson has also gained a lot of value recently for the Bills.  He is a low end No. 4 option.  Think twice about starting any WR from the Bills because of the possibility of snow this week may make the ground game more important.

 

Scott Chandler missed last weeks’ game due to injury, but has returned to practice Tuesday.  The Bills didn’t say whether he was a full participant or limited, but Chandler is questionable for this week.  We think he plays, but you’ll probably want another option for your starting fantasy roster.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Denver Offense	20	1	31	10	19	163.1	159.4
Buffalo Defense	27	29	16	16	26	139.5	230
Buffalo Offense	17	13	15	10	22	118.2	229.7
Denver Defense	24	20	20	9	24	125.4	238.4

Houston  

Houston’s amazing run to their AFC South title has been a great story, so it’s probably not a shock that it came crashing down last week in a loss to Carolina.  T.J. Yates finally played like a rookie and the Texans running game couldn’t dominate like expected.  Only Arian Foster played up to expectations and the Panthers played a little over their heads.  The Texans now face a motivated Colts team that finally tasted a win for the first time last week.  Indy has played well at home and the Texans should rebound behind their defense (who had an off day) and Foster.

Obviously you cannot play Yates in fantasy yet.  When Schaub comes back next year, Yates will return to his backup role.   Don’t expect more than 180 yards and 1 TD this week.

Arian Foster should have a huge game both running and receiving.  Remember, this is the same Colts team that he exploded on the scene against last year.  Honestly, 150 yards rushing is not being overly generous.  Foster could be even better.  Ben Tate should chip in another 50 yards of offense, and there is a small chance he could do more.  Tate is a risky play this week at anything other than a low-end flex play.

Ignore all the Texans receivers until Andre Johnson comes back.

Owen Daniels has played in 8 games against the Colts since 2006 and he has been terrible in almost all of them.  In fact, he only has one catch in each of the last four games.  Even though he’ll be the #1 target for Yates this week, be prepared for a less-than-stellar game.  Joel Dreessen may actually have a better game and will probably get a TD.

 

Indianapolis

It was nice to see the Colts get a win so they don’t have to carry the 0-Fer designation all off-season.  Of course, that’s the only win that they’ll get because Houston’s defense should be able to shut down a bad Indy offense.   Andrew Luck … come on down!!!!!

If you’re actually considering Dan Orlovsky in Week 16 of your fantasy season, you deserve to lose.  In fact, the entire staff of Fantasy Insights might come down to your place of work and openly mock you.  Orlovsky won’t do much against Houston’s highly-ranked defense (and top-ranked passing defense) and we’ll be shocked if he gets more than 150 yards and a TD.

In 25 years, you’ll find Donald Brown sitting in an easy chair with a big gut boring his family and friends during the holidays by asking them if they want to see his 2011 Week 15 game against the Tennessee Titans again – for the 10,000^th time. That’s what happens when your career can be encapsulated with the highlights of one game.  If you were desperate enough to have started Brown and got his 161 yards and a TD, congratulations because he’s going to revert back to the norm this week.  Don’t expect more than 40 yards rushing this week.  Neither Delone Carter nor Joseph Addai can be started either.

Because the QB’s name is Dan Orlovsky, you cannot start any of the Indy receivers.

Or the tight ends.

Or the kicker.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Houston Offense	8	2	17	16	19	151.8	225.6
Indianapolis Defense	30	28	24	18	24	138.7	246.4
Indianapolis Offense	28	23	30	8	12	103.1	180.6
Houston Defense	3	5	2	8	15	96.8	181.1

Jacksonville

Jacksonville had the stage on Thursday night with an opportunity to show the world their relative friskiness over the past several weeks.  Alas, they laid a giant egg, folding to the Atlanta Falcons, 41-14, in what was a runaway from the very start.  Jacksonville was ineffective on offense and defense, giving up 373 yards of offense to Atlanta, while only gaining 207 total yards themselves.  The Jags travel to Tennessee for a Christmas Eve matchup with division rival Tennessee.

QB Blaine Gabbert had quite the rough night, getting sacked 5 times, giving up 2 fumbles, and throwing 1 INT on his way to a 141-yard, 1 TD performance.  The way we see it, if you average about 150 yards passing per game and almost an INT per game, you should be forced to get rid of your sassy haircut.  The Titans offer a bend-but-don’t-break approach that shouldn’t give Gabbert too much stress, but they do tend to play better at home.  Look for good yardage but few points.  Gabbert should throw for 210 yards passing with 0 TDs and 1 INT.

Despite such a horrific showing by the Jacksonville offense, Maurice Jones-Drew sure hasn’t slowed down.  Jones-Drew rushed for 112 yards on 17 carries, capping off the 6^th straight week of 85 rushing yards or more.  In that span, he has 7 total touchdowns, proving once again to be one of the top running backs for fantasy.  He rolled his ankle in the game, but he looks to be okay as long as he practices on Thursday.  The Titans have struggled to stop the run, and MJD is a particularly tough matchup for the Titans.  Look for Jones-Drew to accumulate 155 total yards (including 4 receptions for 40 yards) and 1 TD in week 16.

The Jaguars are trotting out a veritable pu-pu platter at wide receiver ever since Mike Thomas landed on the bench with a concussion, and Cecil Shorts went out with a hamstring.  Such luminaries as Jarett Dillard, Chastin West, and most recently Taylor Price ensure that Gabbert won’t progress, and the Jaguars get a nice, high pick in April.  Thomas will definitely be questionable for week 16, so don’t expect anybody in the WR corps to stand out.  There shouldn’t be a receiver who gets more than 50 yards receiving or a touchdown, not that any of you were thinking of starting a Jags WR for your fantasy championship.

One receiver that will give the Titans trouble will be Marcedes Lewis.  The Titans already tend to give up a good amount of catches and yards to tight ends.  This game has all the makings of Lewis’ best game of the season.  Look for Lewis to catch 5 passes for 75 yards and 0 TDs.

Jacksonville’s defense has been pretty hit-and-miss over the season, and though the Titans’ offense has struggled to get off the ground lately, it could very possibly open up now that the playoffs are all but out of reach.  On the road, don’t look for the Jaguars to get enough momentum to warrant using for fantasy this week.

 

Tennessee  

In week 15, the Titans displayed, for the record, the extent of their mediocrity: with a playoff berth on the line, the Titans came out exceedingly flat against an 0-13 Indianapolis Colts, losing 27-13.  This was the story of the Titans’ season, only in the extreme.  Now the 7-7 Titans find themselves in the familiar position of trying to either back into the playoffs or more likely, go back to the drawing board to find something that will get them past 8-8.  The Jaguars come to town, and it remains to be seen whether an embarrassed Titans franchise will rally in their anger, or mail it in for the remainder of the season.

QB Matt Hasselbeck had arguably his worst game of the season, throwing for 223 yards and 2 INTs.  Hobbled somewhat by a strained calf, Hasselbeck led to a performance that mimicked his second-half fade.  With the playoffs virtually a pipe dream, look for his leash to be extremely short.  Jake Locker has come on in relief of Hasselbeck for two straight weeks, outplaying him each time, albeit in more favorable game conditions.  Locker threw for 108 yards and a TD in the 4^th quarter, once again providing a bit of a spark for the offense.  The quarterback situation is one fantasy owners need to avoid.  It seems likely that Hasselbeck will start the game, but look for Locker to take over midway through the first half.  Locker should finish with about 200 yards passing with 1 TD and 1 INT.

RB Chris Johnson’s performance in week 15 all but guaranteed that he won’t be used for fantasy purposes for the remainder of the year…and he shouldn’t be.  Johnson was back to the shell of his former self, the consummation of which came when as Chris Rucker caught Johnson from behind on a 35-yard run that CJ would be expected to take to the house.  The Jaguars are much sturdier against the run than the Colts, and Johnson will do no favors for fantasy owners here in championship week, unless you are in a PPR league.  Johnson continues to get tons of dump-offs from Hasselbeck and Locker (8 catches on 11 targets this week).  Johnson should continue to catch 6 or more passes, so he remains viable in PPR leagues.  But don’t look for more than about 60 total yards and 0 TDs.

The sudden need for the Titans to play catch up resulted in several drives of all passes.  The net result was a great day for Lavelle Hawkins, who had 8 catches for 88 yards on an unusual 10 targets.  Nate Washington, dealing with a badly sprained ankle, all but crawled his way to 7 catches for 62 yards and 1 TD.  It says something about his heart and relative talent that he led the team with 13 targets despite looking like he can barely run at times.  Damian Williams surprisingly finished with 2 catches for 15 yards on 6 targets, resulting in his being a non-factor in the game.  This week, look for Washington to finish with 75 yards on 5 catches and 0 TDs, while Williams gets 6 receptions for 60 yards and 1 TD.  Hawkins will put up around 4 catches for 50 yards.  Washington may just be too banged up to justify starting, while Williams is poised to have a nice rebound week.

Monday, Coach Mike Munchak suggested that they would try to get Jared Cook more involved in the offense.  Yeah, that makes sense…wait until week 16 to try to get the ball into the hands of one of your most athletic players on the team.  For all the talk of potential, we saw a bit of it in week 15 with a 9 catch 103-yard performance from Cook.  Granted, much of that yardage was accumulated while the Titans were playing catch up, but it might compel Locker to look his way more often.  Against the Jaguars, Cook probably won’t see 11 targets like he did in Indy, but he should be good for 6 receptions for 70 yards and 0 TDs.

The Titans defense did not perform as expected against the Colts in week 15, but the matchup they face this week is equally tempting.  The key to this one is that the Titans are home, and though they’ll give up some yards, they should manage to hold the point total down for Jacksonville, and manage to get Gabbert to make a few costly mistakes.  I would start the Titans defense this week for fantasy.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Jacksonville Offense	29	12	32	7	11	119.1	137.2
Tennessee Defense	8	23	15	7	20	127.7	229.1
Tennessee Offense	24	31	13	7	19	91.9	236.1
Jacksonville Defense	12	14	4	13	19	110.4	196.9

Miami

Miami jumped out to a huge lead on Buffalo last week and then hung on to a close win.  To say that it was almost all due to Reggie Bush’s 203 yards of rushing is a bit of an understatement.  Because Bush was so dominant, he allowed Brandon Marshall and Anthony Fasano to get behind the defense for long touchdown catches.  This week, the Dolphins travel up to New England where it’ll probably be snowing like in Buffalo last week.  This should be a nice fantasy smorgasbord for fantasy owners with players on both teams.

It might be blasphemy, but Matt Moore is probably a better passer than Tim Tebow and if you’re just in desperate times in your game for this week, Moore won’t exactly lead you to a championship, but he probably won’t cost you one either.  Look for Moore to exploit the NE secondary for 270 yards and 2 TDs.

Yes … you should start Reggie Bush as he is just a wee bit hot right now.  He won’t get 200 yds rushing again, but he should be able to get over 100 yards in total offense with another 4 or 5 receptions.  Normally, we’d tell you to take a shot at Daniel Thomas, whose downhill running style should be able to work against the Pats.  However, Thomas has gone completely AWOL for the season and cannot be started in good conscience.  We doubt Thomas gets more than 50 yards rushing and that’s considering garbage-time rushing in the fourth quarter when the Pats are up by 21.

The only Miami WR you can trust to start is Brandon Marshall, who will grab 7 passes for 90 yards and a TD.  None of the other receivers can be trusted to perform, although Brian Hartline might get you 5 catches for 60 yards.  Then again, in Miami, it could be Davone Bess getting those catches.  That’s why you can’t start either, because you just don’t know who will get them.

Anthony Fasano was ignored on one play in Buffalo and was wide open for a TD catch.  That’s what happens when you never catch passes in all the other games, the defense will sometimes just not cover you.  Once again, you cannot start Fasano even against the Pats D.

Dan Carpenter had a great week against Buffalo and should get some scoring chances against New England.  The risk is that the Pats jump out to a big lead and the Dolphins skip trying for FGs.  That’s part of the reason that New England gives up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to kickers.

 

New England 

Now that Tom Brady put Tim Tebow in his place, it’s time to turn his attention to getting the home-field advantage in the playoffs because that defense cannot hold anyone on the road.  Let’s face it, if the Broncos hadn’t made a couple of bone-headed mistakes, the game would have been closer.  Of course, those of us that are Tebow-doubters (not haters) would say that a better passer could have made that game closer too.  (Hey, was that thunder I just heard????)

The last time Brady played Miami, he threw for 500 yards.  He might throw for 400 unless there is a blizzard.

Our guess is that BenJarvus Green-Ellis SHOULD get most of the carries in this game, but it wouldn’t exactly shock us if Stevan Ridley got the most, either.  However, Miami is very good against the run and gives up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs in the league.  If you couple that with the fact that New England rarely runs the ball and none of the Pats backs makes a wonderful fantasy play.  Our guess is that BJGE gets the rock in the fourth quarter when the Pats are icing the game away and gains 60 yards with a TD.

For as much as the Pats throw, the only Pats WR you can really start is Wes Welker.  Look for Welker to get close to double-digit catches again with over 100 yards receiving.  He should get one TD too.

The Broncos really tried to take Rob Gronkowski out of the game last week and did a pretty good job.  Unfortunately the Pats reminded people that they have TWO very good tight ends on the roster.  Aaron Hernandez had a great game (9-129-1 td) last week and could have another good one this week.  Oh, he won’t get stats like that again, but we think that you can start both guys as Brady will keep on throwing to his TEs.  Gronkowski will get back on his roll with 7 catches for 90 yards and a TD, while Hernandez gets 5 catches for 75 yards.

Stephen Gostkowski is always a good play and nothing will change this week – even if there is a blizzard!!!

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Miami Offense	21	7	24	11	16	127.4	193.6
New England Defense	14	19	32	12	21	117.6	296.7
New England Offense	3	20	2	14	35	107.6	318.6
Miami Defense	5	3	25	6	21	91.6	247.6

Minnesota    

The Vikings come into Washington following a 42-20 thrashing compliments of the most dangerous team in the league right now, the Saints.  At 2-12 the Vikings are in a stiff battle for the #1 overall pick with the Colts.  But this is a game they can actually win so let’s see how they perform against the Redskins.  Minnesota comes in with a potent rushing attack and a so-so passing attack, as well as a decent run defense but a horrible pass defense.

 

Rookie Christian Ponder is definitely missing Florida State – not for the criminals or the great deals he was able to get on stolen merchandise (he can afford to buy things now) but because they actually won football games there.  The Redskins pass defense is average and should continue to perform that way so look for Ponder to throw for 160 yards and 1 TD; clearly not numbers you should be considering for your Super Bowl.  If you own Ponder, keep him benched.

 

Adrian Peterson returned last week after missing a few games and responded with a 10 carry, 60 yards rushing performance in the loss.  He was unable to get more action because the team was behind and throwing.  The Redskins have an average run defense so AP should be able to carve them up nicely.  Look for Peterson to scamper for 125 yards and a TD this week, assuming he can stay healthy.  It’s hard to see Toby Gerhart getting two TDs again in limited action like he did last week.

 

Percy Harvin had 3 catches for 8 yards last week.  That’s right, 3 catches for 8 yards – no typos here folks.  This week won’t be quite as pathetic but it will still be pretty bad so consider starting just about anyone else at WR.  If Harvin cracks 50 yards receiving I’ll be shocked.  Is there another WR in Minnesota?  Sammy White?  Ahmad Rashad?  Cris Carter?  Sidney Rice?  Has anyone seen another WR in Minnesota?  Last week Devin Aromashodu was the leading WR with a whopping 2 catches for 29 yards.  The leading receiver on the team was RB Gerhart.  Clearly the Vikings passing game is one to avoid at all costs.

 

Visanthe Shiancoe is not worth starting even though the ‘Skins give up a ton of fantasy points to opposing TEs.  He hasn’t topped 5 catches and 50 yards since Week 4.

 

Ryan Longwell gets shut out on FGs too much to play.

 

Washington  

The Redskins are flying high – no, Fred Davis and Trent Williams are not back from their season-ending marijuana suspensions, they’re flying high because they won a game.  In fact, they manhandled the Giants for the second time this season to sweep the season series.  The thought of them winning 2 in a row however, is just too much for me to handle so I wouldn’t get excited from a fan’s perspective, but I would be excited about their fantasy prospects against the league’s 30^th ranked pass defense.

 

Rex Grossman was his usual self last week but amazingly the Giants were so terrible that even his multiple mistakes (2 INTs) and continued inconsistencies couldn’t generate another loss for his team.  But that was then and this is now; I have all the faith in the world in his ability to bounce back and cost his team another win this week against the lowly Vikings.  Still, with Minnesota’s pass defense one of the worst in the league look for Rex to throw for 300 yards and 2 TDs.  Not bad for an up-and-down loser.

 

Roy Helu struggled against the Giants last week in the running game; the only thing the Giants didn’t completely suck at last week.  He faces a much tougher run defense this week in the Vikings so be very hesitant to start him despite his recent success (pre-Giants game last week).  I don’t see Helu breaking 75 yards rushing this week but he could sneak in a score.  He should be more successful catching the ball to the tune of 60 yards receiving on 8 receptions.

 

Santana Moss scored a TD last week but that’s pretty much all he did.  He finished with 2 catches for 40 yards and really didn’t help your team much.  Still, this week he should give you a flash of what he was once able to do and can still do when healthy.  Look for 5 catches for 70 yards from Santana this week – oh yeah, and maybe a check to the IRS for $250K for his delinquent back-taxes.  Jabar Gaffney has been and is the most consistent WR on this team this year.  He had another big game last week against the lowly Giants and should excel this week against the porous Vikings pass defense.  I look for Gaffney to catch 8 passes for 90 yards and a TD.  Donte’ Stallworth and Anthony Armstrong are too unpredictable and should stay benched.

 

Rookie Logan Paulsen needs to be left on the waiver wire and if you are even reading this part of the team capsule you should lose your playoff game.

 

Graham Gano has made 4, 2, and 3 FGs over the last three weeks and should continue to get some chances this week.  He’s not the worst kicking prospect you could have.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Minnesota Offense	19	4	28	15	18	142.7	184.8
Washington Defense	16	15	14	12	17	112	220.7
Washington Offense	26	29	14	8	16	95.9	233.6
Minnesota Defense	32	10	30	10	31	105.6	260.4

NY Giants 

Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Indianapolis and Oakland.  These are the 4 teams in the NFL that have given up more points that the Giants defense.  I’m thinking with a little more effort the Giants can finish last in the league in points allowed and be able to say they led the league in something this year.  My fingers are still crossed that they will be the next team to fire their head coach but I’m sure that’s another Christmas wish of mine that won’t be fulfilled.

 

Eli Manning (insert deep, painful sigh here).  Look, someone told me you can’t spell elite, as in elite QB, without Eli; I would like to disagree.  I’m going to change the spelling of his name to Elai.  Same pronunciation, but now you can’t spell elite with his name.  Last week was the first time in his career that he threw 3 INTs and 0 TDs; good job Elai.  Now I know he had a guaranteed TD to Nicks that Hakeem dropped, and that’s all on Hakeem but the rest of the game was horrible too.  And don’t quote his stats to me unless you watched the game to see that his stats made him look like a serviceable backup only after the Redskins defense changed to more of a prevent style when the game was already over.  But enough of my Elai hating; this week against the Jets I look for Manning to throw for 200 yards and 2 TDs.  If you have him and somehow survived to make your Super Bowl, first, congratulations and go buy a lottery ticket because you’re one lucky SOB, and second, count your blessings for surviving last week and play your backup QB this week!

 

Ahmad Bradshaw ran 10 times for 58 yards and a TD last week and Brandon Jacobs lumbered 8 times for 33 yards last week.  The offense was never able to get on track and mistakes and turnovers kept them from mounting any kind of attack, plus they were behind all game so had to throw more than they would have liked.  This week they could be behind, they could be ahead.  Who knows with the way these two teams are playing.  The safe bet is to sit both these RBs and take your chances elsewhere, but if you need to know, expect about 60 yards from Bradshaw and 30 yards from Jacobs.

 

After dropping a guaranteed TD pass from Manning early in the game that most likely changed the entire outcome, Hakeem Nicks put together a decent outing with 5 catches for 73 yards.  He had another drop that hurt their momentum as well though, so overall it was a rough day for Nicks.  I look for him to rebound this week and catch a TD pass as well as 4 other passes for 75 yards.  Outside his 5 catches for 44 yards the only thing Victor Cruz did last week was recover Brandon Jacobs’ fumble.  No salsa dancing for him last week, and this week he’ll grab 7 balls for 70 yards but again fail to cha-cha in the end zone.  Mario Manningham had 3 catches for 57 yards but like Nicks had a rougher game than his stats show.  This week he should be able to do better and get you 5 catches for 60 yards and a TD.

 

At one point this season, for a very short time, Jake Ballard was a rising star.  Since then he has faded away and is competing with the FB Hynoski, backup TEs Bear Pascoe and Travis Beckum and disappointing WR Ramses Barden.  As a result you need to ignore and avoid Ballard at all costs.

 

Lawrence Tynes should never be started for your team.

 

 

NY J-E-T-S   

S-U-C-K, suck, suck, suck.  That’s what the Jets did last week against an underachieving Philadelphia Eagles team.  Turnovers, mistakes, and all-around embarrassment followed the Jets throughout the game.  The Jets stats are as wacky as their season has been.  They are 21^st in both rushing and passing offense and 26^th in total yards, yet they are the 7^th highest-scoring team in the league.  Go figure that out.  Their defense is mixed – middle of the road in rushing defense (16^th), top 10 in passing defense (7^th) and total yards (7^th) but 21^st in scoring points allowed.  Between these two NY/NJ teams, who the hell knows what will happen this week.

 

Mark Sanchez.  The only QB in NY that makes Eli look steady.  Two weeks ago he was a stud and the Jets were on their way to a late season run and a possible 3^rd straight AFC Championship game.  Last week he was atrocious (4 sacks, 2 INTs, 1 lost fumble) and the Jets are hanging on to try and back into a wild card spot.  This week he’ll be somewhere in between the past two weeks and looks to finish with about 220 yards passing and 2 TDs.

 

Shonn Greene was on a little run for a few weeks but last week cooled down substantially.  He finished with just 73 rushing yards, 0 receiving yards and no TDs.  He’ll likely produce similar rushing results this week (75 yards) but should have better receiving numbers (40 yards) and will find the end zone as well.  He’ll be a decent play this week.

 

Santonio Holmes caught 4 catches for 40 yards and a TD but also had a costly fumble that the Eagles recovered.  I don’t know that he’ll do much better this week but let’s give him 5 catches for 50 yards.  If Holmes was bad last week than Plaxico Burress was horrible.  He finished with just 1 catch for 9 yards; now it was for a TD but still, he needs to do much better than that to help keep the Jets from shooting themselves in the foot (or leg in his case).  Look for Burress to have a field day against his former team this week and finish with 7 catches for 90 yards and a TD.

 

After being absent for the last couple of weeks Dustin Keller made an appearance last week with 3 catches for 73 yards.  This week should be a big one for him and when it’s all said and done will have set his individual high for receptions in a year and tied his career high for TDs in a year (he’s already broken his receiving yardage total).  So look for 8 catches for 100 yards and a TD from Keller this week.

 

For the last five weeks, Nick Folk has alternated between kicking 2 FGs and kicking 0.  This is his “0” week, so be forewarned.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
New York Giants Offense	13	32	3	14	25	86.1	299
New York Jets Defense	21	16	7	15	13	112.9	205.1
New York Jets Offense	7	21	21	13	23	104.1	201.9
New York Giants Defense	28	22	29	14	25	127.6	257.5

Oakland 

Did you know that the Chiefs have not beaten the Raiders at Arrowhead since 2006?  Yep, that’s right.  Those weird JaMarcus Russell and Jason Campbell-led Raider teams have won four in a row in Kansas City.  With the exception of the last game of 2010, where the Raiders whipped the Chiefs 35-10, all of those games were low-scoring fantasy disasters for Raider players.  Given the mental damage Oakland sustained last week by losing in the last minute to the Detroit Lions at home in the Black Hole, there’s no telling which Raider team will show up this week.  The last time these two got together in 2011, it was the debut of Carson Palmer as a Raider and the Chiefs got two interception returns for touchdowns and won – in Oakland – 28-0.  For fantasy owners, the more important aspect of that game was Darren McFadden going down with an injury on this third carry of the game.  DMC hasn’t played a down since.

Carson Palmer has now had a lot more practices under his belt than the four he had the last time he played KC.  Palmer was atrocious in his one-half of play against the Chiefs, but considering he had just joined the team on the Tuesday before, he’s excused for that clunker.  Hopefully you have a better option on your roster than Palmer – and you probably do since you’re still playing – but if you’re stuck, Palmer isn’t a terrible start.  He should be able to get 260 yards and 2 TDs this week.

Michael Bush finally got back over 100 yards of offense last week, but it took a bunch of receptions to do it.  Bush has been great (trust me, I grabbed him the week before DMC got hurt) for the most part, but until last week, his stats had been going down.  The Raiders running game has killed the Chiefs over the past couple of years, so Bush should be a decent #2.  The ONLY problem with starting Bush is if McFadden comes back.  As of this writing, there are still thoughts of him giving it a go this weekend because the Raiders playoff hopes are on life-support.  I absolutely cannot recommend DMC unless he practices fully for the entire week.  If McFadden comes back, Bush is a flex play or #4 RB at best.

The Raiders WR corps is in such a state of flux due to injuries that it’s hard to recommend any of them with a straight face.  Darrius Heyward-Bey is the best bet to play well because he’s the healthiest.  Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford and Louis Murphy are too iffy to play.  DHB could be a decent #3 fantasy WR or flex player as he should get 5 catches for 75 yards.

Ignore Kevin Boss even though the Chiefs have been susceptible to giving up points to tight ends.  He might get 5 catches for 45 yards if he’s lucky.

When Sebastian Janikowski sees the red Chiefs jerseys on the opposite sideline, he goes all “Hall-of-Fame” and is the best kicker in the league.  He’ll have at least one 50-yard FG this week, so play him.

 

Kansas City   

I freely admit as a Chiefs fan for the last 45 of my 49 years on Earth, that I gave them the proverbial snowball’s chance in Hell of  beating the Packers last week.  I shouldn’t have.  The Chiefs have an uncanny record at Arrowhead against elite NFC teams over the years and the bounce they got from Todd Haley’s firing and the fact that the Packers were sleepwalking through the first half, allowed KC to get a feel-good win for 2011.  Now they get the Raiders, who have treated Arrowhead like THEIR home over the past four years, so the Chiefs should be motivated.  Oh yeah … and there’s still an outside chance that the team could make the playoffs.

Kyle Orton had a good game against the Pack, but it was mostly due to him not taking a sack or having a turnover.  He found 10 different receivers during the game to throw for 299 yards, but didn’t have a TD.  The Raiders are very vulnerable against the pass, so the odds of Orton having a pretty good game has risen.  Like Palmer across the field, Orton is a decent play this week if you’re desperate at QB.  He probably won’t win the game for you (like a Brees or Rodgers), but Orton won’t lose it either.  Look for him to have 290 yards and 2 TDs.

Jackie Battle will probably get the bulk of the carries this week, but he’s unstartable.  He’ll share carries with Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster, so no one will get the ball enough to be a fantasy star.

Dwayne Bowe had a minor disciplinary problem last week that had him on the bench when the Packer game started, but he came in pretty quickly.  I don’t think there’s any residual problem, so Bowe should be a decent start for your team as he’ll get 5 catches for 70 yards.  Steve Breaston is a low-end flex play in PPR leagues because he’ll probably be close to the team lead in targets.  My gut feeling is that Jon Baldwin will have a great game because he’s almost a forgotten guy right now, but he’ll get behind the defense for some big plays.  I cannot recommend him for such a critical fantasy week, because there is also a chance that Baldwin gets 1 catch for 17 yards, too.  However, if you’re in an “I don’t care” mode and/or absolutely desperate at WR, take a flier on Baldwin.

Despite Leonard Pope and Anthony Becht’s performances in the Packers game, they’re not fantasy-worthy at TE.

Ryan Succop will get a couple of FG attempts, but isn’t worth a start.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Oakland Offense	15	6	12	16	17	138.3	236.3
Kansas City Defense	22	24	9	14	22	130.4	209.6
Kansas City Offense	31	14	26	4	12	118	186.1
Oakland Defense	29	26	23	14	27	135	243.8

Philadelphia

The Philadelphia Eagles enter Saturday’s matchup against the Dallas Cowboys with their playoff hopes barely alive.  After a dominating 45-19 win against Rex Ryan and the New York Jets, the Eagles have put themselves in position where if they win their last two games, and the Giants lose to the  Jets, they can win the NFC East with an 8-8 record.  The playoffs start this week for Philadelphia.

 

QB Michael Vick completed 21 of 28 (75 pct.) for 279 yards with 2 TDs vs. 0 INTs for 129.9 rating in last meeting against Dallas. He also added 50 rush yards in the Eagles blowout win over the Cowboys 34-7 in late October.  Consider Vick a viable Fantasy start in the must-win game for the Eagles and Fantasy teams.

 

RB LeSean McCoy leads the NFL with 20 TDs (17 rush, 3 rec.).  McCoy has scored a TD in 13 of 14 games this season, including 3 rushing TDs last week.  McCoy leads NFL with 100 1st downs & 82 rush 1st downs.   He has dominated the Cowboys with 334 rush yards (167 per game) & 2 TDs in the past 2 meetings.   Consider him a must-start this week.

 

WR Desean Jackson lit up the Cowboys the last time they played with 4 catches for 210 yards (52.5 avg.) and a 91 yard TD.  Keep an eye on his injury status.  He suffered an elbow injury last week, and when he returned to the game was a non-factor.  Jeremy Maclin also had a good game the last time the Eagles played Dallas with a TD and 54 yards.  Consider Jackson a number 2 or a flex option if he is healthy and avoid Maclin if possible this week.

 

TE Brent Celek had 5 catches for 156 yards (31.2 avg.) & TD last week against the Jets.  The Cowboys have given up points to TEs all season, giving up the 7^th most points to TEs this year.  Consider Celek a number 1 starter in fantasy this week.

 

Eagles K Alex Henery has been a solid option all year.  Start him if you got him.

 

Dallas

 

The Dallas Cowboys come off a 31-15 road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a chance to end the Eagle’s slim playoff hopes and take control of the NFC East with a win over Philadelphia.  Last time the Cowboys faced the Eagles, Michael Vick and the Eagles routed Dallas 34-7 in a game that was never in doubt.  The Cowboys have a chance for redemption this Saturday.

 

In past 3 home meetings versus the Eagles, including the playoffs, QB TONY ROMO is 3-0, completing 68 of 99 (68.7 pct.) for 867 yards with 7 TDs vs. 2 INTs for 111 rating.  Romo has 3,895 pass yards & needs 105 to reach 4,000 for 3rd time in career.  Romo is playing the best football of his career this year and is a number 1 fantasy option this week.

 

The Cowboys running game keeps getting hobbled by injuries.  Just when it appeared Felix Jones had overcome his previous injury woes, he lands back on the injury report.  Jones has rushed for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games, the first time in his four-year career that he has gained at least 100 yards in consecutive outings. Fantasy owners should monitor his situation while considering him a No. 2 Fantasy RB against the Eagles if he’s healthy enough to play on Saturday.

 

The top three Cowboy WRs all had a TD and a decent game against the Buccaneers.  Miles Austin hauled in a TD and also had 56 yards receiving.  Dez Bryant has now caught a TD pass in three straight games and has been too productive to remove from your starting line-up.  Laurent Robinson was able to play through a shoulder-injury last week and caught his team-leading ninth TD pass.  Consider Austin and Bryant low end number 1 WRs this week and Robinson a high end number 2 starter.

 

TE JASON WITTEN has 4 TDs in the past 4 meetings versus the Eagles. Since the start of 2007, Witten leads NFL TEs with 433 catches & 4,978 yards.  Witten remains a favorite target for Romo, so he should remain in your lineup as a number 1 fantasy TE.

 

K Dan Bailey has been consistent all year as long as his coach does not ice him.  Start him if you got him.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Philadelphia Offense	9	3	11	19	17	149.7	251
Dallas Defense	13	7	19	9	19	98.1	235.3
Dallas Offense	6	11	7	5	30	119.8	270.9
Philadelphia Defense	19	17	10	11	25	113.6	213.8

San Diego

Like so many teams, the Chargers and the Lions have been to the mountain top this year, as well as mired in the muck. They are both alive and well now and struggling for playoff life as far as the Chargers go and for seeding for the Lions. San Diego has worked their way from a 4-7 start up to 7-7 with two games to go. Fortunately they are in the AFC West that is comprised of four very average teams, any of whom could still make the playoffs. They have a strong offense and the 6^th best pass defense, which sold bode well against Detroit.

QB Philip Rivers (1723-270 with a 1/0 TD/INT ratio) has been hot over the last three games, all Ws by the Chargers. Over that time he has thrown for 804 yards with an 8/0 TD/INT ratio. In the five games before that, part of their six game losing streak, he had a 9/10 ratio, like the difference between night and day. Expect about a 300 yard, two TD game against the Lions.

RB Ryan Mathews (26-90-2///2-19-0) had his three game streak of 100+ games broken, but overall he had 453 yards and three TDs in the last four games. As he has become the every down back, there has been little opportunity for Mike Tolbert (8-40-1///2-18-0). Expect that to remain the case as long as Mathews is healthy. Look for about 100 combined yards and a TD from Mathews and another 40 yards and a TD from Tolbert.

WR Vincent Jackson (3-84-0) has produced a 12-211-1 stat line over the last three games, hardly the stats of an elite WR that he claims to be. With Malcom Floyd (5-96-1) back and healthy, Vincent Brown 1-13-0) has been a fantasy non-factor with a three week stat line of 2-35-1. In fact, Floyd’s numbers of 11-233-2, make him the surprise #1 WR during the in streak. Look for Jackson and Floyd to both have about 6-90-1 games, with Brown contributing little.

TE Antonio Gates (2-31-0) has been hindered by injury much of the year, even when playing. Yet, he had been playing well with a Week 12-14 stats line of 19-187-3. Expect him to chip in with about a 4-60-0 game against the Lions.

PK Nick Novak has four FGs and 13 XPs over the last three games. Novak owners are well advised to play the hot hand (or in this case foot) and put him in the lineup this week.

Detroit 

After winning two of the last three games, Detroit is now at 9-5 and is likely to make the playoffs. They cannot sit back and sigh just yet. The Chargers must win and will be tough, even at home.

QB Matthew Stafford (29/52-391 with a 4/0 TD/INT ratio) has had a good, but inconsistent, year statistically. When they are winning is very, very good, as his 7/1 TD/INT ratio will attest over the last three games, two of which were wins. Conversely, his 7/9 ratio in the three preceding games, two of which were losses, was abysmal. He could be challenged as the 6^th ranked Chargers pass defense will work hard to shut down the Stafford/Johnson combo, after their hot week against the Raiders. Expect about 280 yards with a pair of TDs. Whether he can avoid costly INTs is one of the keys to this game.

The other key from a Detroit standpoint is the 27^th ranked rushing attack. RB Kevin Smith (15-43-0///1-3-0) played hurt last week. Maurice Morris has a chest injury and while playing sparingly, had no stats. Keiland Williams had a lone carry for no yards. They need to establish a running attack against the Chargers, or it could be a lopsided San Diego win. Watch the health of Smith and Morris closely. As of now, expect Smith to gain about 80 yards, with maybe a TD.

WR Calvin Johnson (9-214-2) finally exploded. Temper that though with the fact that it was his first two TD game since Week 4. Also, it was his first 100+ yard game since Week 8. Nate Burleson (7-81-1) and the improving Titus Young (5-21-1) also had valuable contributions to the winning effort. Look for Johnson to have a more normal 6-90-1 game, with about a 5-70-0 stat line from Burleson and a 3-40-1 contribution from Young.

TE Brandon Pettigrew (5-49-0) has been a consistent, few but not spectacular fantasy scorer. Hopefully you have someone better at this stage of the season.

PK Jason Hanson has 3 FG and 10 XPs in the last three games. Like Pettigrew, hopefully you have someone better at this stage of the season.

With a win Detroit punches their ticket to the playoffs and seals the fate of a few other teams. With a loss, it throws the playoff situation into turmoil heading into Week 17.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
San Diego Offense	5	15	6	15	23	117.4	272.6
Detroit Defense	23	27	12	10	19	135.8	218.8
Detroit Offense	4	28	5	8	33	97.4	282.8
San Diego Defense	20	21	6	7	24	126.1	201.5

San Francisco 

In one of the weirder MNF games that I can remember, the 49ers absolutely PUMMELED the Pittsburgh Steelers in-between power outages.  It’s like they remembered when the Ravens did it to them a few weeks ago and SF wanted to let the rest of the NFC know that they weren’t pussies.   Because the Niners are in a huge fight with the Saints for the #2 spot in the playoffs and a bye, fantasy owners can be happy that all the important fantasy players will be on the field this week.  Ok … Frank Gore will be on the field.

Don’t be starting Alex Smith for your fantasy team because his upside is 240 yards and 2 TDs with no picks.  That’s fine when you have the best defense in the NFL, but is merely adequate when you’re trying to win a fantasy championship.  No reason to think that Smith will explode on the road in a tough environment (probably in the rain) so look for 190 yards and 1 TD.

It’s not like you’re going to sit Frank Gore – unless you’ve got an amazing bench – but he is slowing up a bit and not putting together any of those “WOW!” games.  You know, like his five-game stretch where he topped 100 yards rushing every time?  He’s pretty much become a 70-yard runner with a TD per game guy.  Seattle is pretty good against the run and they’re at home, so don’t expect more than 80 total yards and a TD from Gore.  Kendall Hunter won’t touch the ball enough to be a fantasy factor.

Michael Crabtree is the only WR you can play and he won’t get much more than 6 catches for 75 yards at best.  He’s a very low-end #3 fantasy WR and probably closer to a mid-range #4.  Ignore everyone else.

Vernon Davis should be an elite TE in this league, but having Smith as his QB has limited Davis’ potential.  He led the team in targets against Pittsburgh and we can see that happening again this week in Seattle.  He’s barely a #`1 fantasy TE this week with 5 catches for 65 yards.

David Akers seems to be getting a couple of FGs and XPs per game these days, so he is good to go against Seattle.

 

Seattle   

It’s a nice story that the Seahawks have evened their record at 7-7 by winning five of their last six, but if you look closer, other than an upset over Baltimore in Week 10 when the Ravens only gave the ball to Ray Rice five times, Seattle has fattened up on lesser defensive teams.  San Francisco isn’t a lesser defensive team.

Just ignore Tarvaris Jackson this week.  No way do you want your fantasy glory hitched to his wagon.  Jackson will be lucky to get 225 yards and 1 TD this week.

For those of you (like me) that have been riding the Marshawn Lynch Train to fantasy nirvana, this is a bad, bad match-up to have in an important game.  The Niners just dominate running games and don’t give up many fantasy points at all.  In Week 1, the Niners held Lynch to 33 yds on 12 rushes with no TDs.  Lynch has obviously been on a roll with touchdowns in nine out of his last 10 games – and he’s had five rushing touchdowns in the last three weeks – but this is a tough match-up.  If you have a good bench with better match-ups, you may want to sit Lynch down.  However, if your bench isn’t all that good, play Lynch and hope for a game like last week when he only got 40 yards rushing, but two TDs.

Doug Baldwin is probably a bad start for you this week as teams with decent secondaries have been able to take him out of games.  Even with Sidney Rice out, Baldwin sometimes gets lost in the Seattle passing game – like only having two targets in two or the last three games.  Hey, if Jackson targets Baldwin 10 times this week, he’ll be fine, but you cannot count on that this week.  Forget Golden Tate and the others.

Remember when Zach Miller was an up-and-coming tight end on the edge of fantasy greatness????  Nope … we’ve forgotten that by now also.  Skip Miller.

Steven Hauschka should get some FG attempts this week as the game should be fairly low-scoring and close.  He’s not a bad play at kicker.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
San Francisco Offense	14	9	29	11	16	125	182.4
Seattle Defense	6	11	13	8	17	106.3	220.7
Seattle Offense	23	22	23	13	13	103.9	198.1
San Francisco Defense	1	1	21	0	18	71.5	239.6

 

St. Louis     

Ohhhhhh … if this season could only hurry up and get over.

Sam Bradford will be out.  Jay Feeley is probably out.  That means that Kellen Clemens will be QB.  Kellen Clemens will probably put up the same stats as former E-Street Band sax-man, Clarence Clemens would do against Pittsburgh.  The bad part is that Clarence Clemens died last year.  Skip all the Rams this week unless you’re desperate at RB and then you can hope and pray Steven Jackson gets enough carries to gain 75 yards and maybe get a TD.

 

Pittsburgh   

It was a bad, bad weekend for the “tough” AFC North last weekend as Baltimore and Pittsburgh got their heads handed to them by “soft” California teams, San Diego and San Francisco.  For the Steelers, they’ll look to get really healthy at home against what may be the worst team in football (sorry, Indy).

Hopefully you have an alternative to Ben Roethlisberger on your roster because this would be the perfect game for Mike Tomlin to rest Big Ben and put Charlie Batch under center.  The Steelers can beat the Rams without Roethlisberger and if you stayed up late enough to watch that 49ers game on Monday night, it was a shock that Roethlisberger even made it to kickoff with that ankle sprain.  Avoid the Steelers QB situation this week unless Roethlisberger practices fully later in the week.

For one of the few times all year, we heartily endorse playing Rashard Mendenhall against the Rams utterly woeful run defense.  The Rams give up the fifth-most points to fantasy running backs and the Steelers might decide to beat St. Louis with the run – especially if the weather is bad.  Isaac Redman will get more carries than usual this week, but not enough to be a fantasy factor.

Figures that we get to the Championship weekend for most fantasy leagues and guys like Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are very, very questionable.  Not because of injury to them, but because of the uncertainty of Roethlisberger.  Keep an eye on the injury report for Big Ben.  If he plays, both Wallace and Brown make for decent starts.  If Charlie Batch starts – watch out!

Heath Miller is not a good start no matter who is quarterback.  If he’s been your TE for the whole season and you’re still playing, then go ahead and keep him in your starting line-up because you obviously have a very strong team at every other position.

There could be lots of field goals from Pittsburgh because if they get to 10 or more points, they probably win.  Shaun Suisham is a decent play at kicker.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
St. Louis Offense	32	26	27	5	8	99.4	185.9
Pittsburgh Defense	2	6	1	7	15	97.2	179.6
Pittsburgh Offense	22	17	8	9	21	112.4	260.5
St. Louis Defense	25	32	8	12	19	153.4	206.3

Tampa Bay

If the Bucs are going to save their head coaches job, they need to beat division rival, Carolina, on the road.  Unfortunately, anyone that has watched the Bucs since they came back from London knows that it’s the Panthers that will probably have the big fantasy day.

If you’re still playing in your fantasy league, don’t depend on Josh Freeman at QB, because he’s been absolutely terrible for several weeks.  Don’t expect more than 230 yards and 2 TDs.

On the other hand, LeGarrette Blount could be a good play this week against the Panthers suspect run defense.  The only risk with Blount is if Cam Newton and Co. blow up early in the game and get a big lead.  Blount will head to the bench and Kregg Lumpkin will take over in the backfield because he’s a better blocker and a better receiver.  At this point, it kinda comes down to what YOU think will happen in this game.  We think that it might stay close for at least the first three quarters, so Blount should have some decent stats.

Avoid the Bucs receivers.  You can still win your game without having to play any of them.  And even if Freeman has a good day, he’ll spread the ball all over the place and any of the Bucs’ receivers could be “the guy” on Saturday.

Kellen Winslow seemingly gets about 45 yards per game receiving just about every week.  He’s not an elite TE any more now that there are 10 guys that give you better stats, but he almost always gets you a few points every week.

Connor Barth should get a couple extra FG attempts this week, but he’s still a low-low-end fantasy kicker.

 

Carolina

The Panthers have a legitimate shot at winning six games this year with an extremely dynamic and likable franchise quarterback under center for the next 10 years.  When you think about where this franchise was a year ago, Ron Rivera should probably get some Coach of the Year love.  Carolina plays their last home game against the Bucs and I would think that alone would be motivation enough to play well.  Fortunately for fantasy owners, the strength of the Panthers matches up well with the weakness of the Bucs.

Cam Newton is a very solid high-end #1 starter this week as he should be able to get both passing yards and rushing yards against a Bucs team that may have quit for the season.  Remember that it was only three weeks ago that these two teams met and Newton passed for 1 TD and ran for 3 more.  At worst, Newton is a Top-3 fantasy QB.

If the Panthers attack the Bucs like they did in the last game, you should be able to start Jonathan Stewart for sure and make DeAngelo Williams a very intriguing flex play.  Stewart got 99 yards and a TD last time (couldn’t get ONE MORE YARD, Jon???) and there’s no reason to think that he cannot come close to that again.  Williams had a bad game last time (11 carries, 29 yards) but his recent play suggests that if you’re stuck at RB, take a chance on Williams and his big-play ability at home.  All Williams needs to do is break one long run on his home turf and your potential zero at RB could come close to getting your double-digit fantasy points.

The only thing the Bucs did well last time was shut down Steve Smith (2-32-0), so be careful if you’re playing him this week.  Like we’ve been saying with other fantasy studs with good match-ups, it’s really hard to bench the guys that got you to your championship/semi-final round and there’s NOTHING other than that Dec. 4 game that makes us think a semi-disinterested Buc team that wants to get home for Christmas will be able to shut Smith down again.  We think Smith bounces back with 5 catches for 75 yards and a TD.  Brandon LaFell caught 3-68 last time and Legedu Naanee grabbed a TD, but we don’t recommend either of them this week.  Not because they’ll be bad, but we think they both will have moderate fantasy numbers with no TDs.

At this point, starting either Jeremy Shockey or Greg Olsen is a total crap-shoot.  One guy might grab a TD pass, but we couldn’t even begin to prognosticate which one that will be.   We hope you have better, more reliable options at TE.

Despite the Bucs having lost their will to live, don’t even THINK about using Carolina’s defense, ok?

Olindo Mare has a better shot at multiple XPs rather than multiple FGs, so reaching double-digit fantasy points might be tough.  Last time against the Bucs he had 1 FG and 5 XPs.  We doubt he has a similar stat line this time.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Tampa Bay Offense	27	27	18	8	14	97.4	223.8
Carolina Defense	26	25	18	16	22	130.4	234.4
Carolina Offense	11	5	10	22	17	141	252.1
Tampa Bay Defense	31	30	26	20	25	141.1	248.1

Atlanta

After a woeful 2-3 start to the season, Atlanta is riding the crest of a 7-2 record over the last nine games. One of the few teams with a better record of late is New Orleans who has a six game winning streak of their own. The rushing attack is a tad out of synch, but the Ryan/White/Jones QB/WR trio has been making up for it and then some. Like Detroit, Atlanta with a win clinches their playoff slot. If they lose, they can still make it with a Week 18 win over Tampa Bay who actually beat them early in Week 3.

QB Matt Ryan (19/26-224 with a 3/0 TD/INT ratio) has an 11/2 TD/INT ratio over the last four games. The Saints are one of the worst teams in the NFL defending the pass, ranking 27^th... The Saints, like the Packers try to overwhelm you with their offense, as their defense leaves a little to be desired. Expect Ryan and Brees to compete in an old AFL type game from the 1960’s with an unusually high score. Watch for Ryan to have about 300 yards passing with three TDs.

RB Michael Turner (19-61-1///2-4-0) leads the 18^th ranked running attack. With only 241 rushing yards and a single TD over the last four games his production has fallen off precipitously. If you have a possibly better alternative in your big game this week, I would recommend rolling the dice and going with it. I just do not see anything better than an 80 yard, with possibly one TD game from Turner.

The Atlanta resurgence over the last few weeks has been through the air. WR Roddy White (10-135-2) has a 31-390-5 stat line over the last four games. Since returning from injury three games ago, highly touted rookie Julio Jones has put up 12-257-3 numbers. With a favorable matchup against a weak pass defense, look for a 7-120-1 game from White and a 5-90-1 game from Jones. Harry Douglas (1-12-0) will not be a significant fantasy factor.

TE Tony Gonzalez (1-14-0) had somewhat of an off game for him, but expect him to bounce back with a about a 5-70-1 stat line.

PK Matt Bryant has had four FGs and 10 XPs the last three weeks. In a high scoring game like this is expected to be, he would be a good bet to have in your lineup.

New Orleans

With an 11-3 record and riding a six game winning streak, While it seems like a meaningless game, the Saints need to win to fend off the Falcons in the division race, as well as in an attempt to wrest a first round bye away from the 49ers.

QB Drew Brees (32/40-412 with a 5/0 TD/INT ratio) is only 304 yards from Dan Marino’s single season passing record. With two games to go and with 1,454 yards and a 14/0 TD/INT ratio over the last four games, that record should in this game. And more importantly, with this being a key game, Brees’ fantasy owners should not have to worry about him being rested. Look for him to put up his normal great numbers, about 350 yards with four TDs.

RB Mark Ingram has been out a while now, but Chris Ivory (18-74-0) has been playing well in his absence. The other two members of this highly effective RBBC Pierre Thomas (8-44-1///2-41-0) and Darren Sproles (8-33-0///5-79-1) have been doing great as well. Expect another 70 combined yards from all three of them with TDs from Thomas and Sproles.

WR Marques Colston (8-91-0) puts up great reception and yardage numbers, but only has TDs in three games, where he a total of five. But that means no TDs much more often than not from him. On the other hand, Lance Moore (5-91-2) has quietly had seven TDs in the last five weeks. Now that he is healthy he is a red zone favorite. Robert Meacham (2-22-0) and Devery Henderson (1-4-0) remain fantasy irrelevant. Look for Colston to have about a 7-100-1 game, with Moore adding 6-70-1 numbers.

TE Jimmy Graham (7-70-1) scored his first TD in three weeks against the Vikings. Expect about a 8-90-1 game from Graham.

PK John Kasay is a must start if you have him.

 

Quick Stats	Rank	Rush Rank	Pass Rank	Rushing TDs	Passing TDs	Rush YPG	Pass YPG
Atlanta Offense	10	18	9	11	26	110.6	255.8
New Orleans Defense	18	13	28	10	22	109.9	256.1
New Orleans Offense	2	8	1	14	37	125.4	331.4
Atlanta Defense	9	4	17	9	19	96.6	230.6