English Premier League Game Week 21 Preview

by Thomas Hejduk

Saturday, January 14^th

Aston Villa vs. Everton                  

10:00am  ET       

Aston Villa

The biggest news from Villa Park is that Robbie Keane has joined the team on short-term loan and could make an appearance in this match.  That would pit him against his L.A. Galaxy teammate Landon Donovan.  From a fantasy manager’s standpoint, there’s not much of interest.  Keane is only with the club for six matches and is too risky an investment to justify.  The more relevant news is that Shay Given may be back in the lineup.  The club has only won two league matches since Thanksgiving (although one was a shocker at Stamford Bridge) and has been held scoreless in five of their last eight so there’s nothing to get excited about here.

Everton

As usual, this looks like a fantasy wasteland.  Leighton Baines and Leon Osman share the team lead with a whopping three goals on the season.  Baines is of course the best bet, but also priced accordingly.  Phil Jagielka is normally another viable defensive option, but he’s out for six weeks with a knee injury.  Landon Donovan is going to score sooner or later, so he could be worth a roll of the dice but that’s about it.

Blackburn Rovers vs. Fulham                      

10:00am  ET       

Blackburn

The club sits at the bottom of the table and yet seven of their 14 points have come courtesy of Arsenal, Manchester United, and Liverpool.  They also knocked Newcastle out of the Carling Cup.  You never know what you’re going to get, but more often than not it’s bad and aside from the occasional Yukubu outburst there hasn’t been any fantasy value.  There’s no particular reason to expect production against Fulham and most of the news surrounding the club involves rumor transfers with Christopher Samba and Junior Hoilett likely to leave for greener pastures.  The fact that the best news of the season involves an earlier than expected return for David Dunn – a player who suffered a RUPTURED TESTICLE – tells you everything you know about how this season is going for Blackburn.

Fulham

The Cottagers are slowly turning their fortunes around and Clint Dempsey is a big reason for the improvement.  The American has seven goals in his past nine matches, including a hat-trick against Charlton in the FA Cup.  Fulham’s only loss in their past five league matches was a bad one to Manchester United, but they also played Chelsea to a draw and beat Arsenal in that stretch.  They should be able to handle Blackburn, which makes Dempsey a nice option.  The defenders haven’t really justified their price.  Brede Hangeland and John Arne Riise still don’t have a goal between them in spite of 38 combined starts.  Bobby Zamora could again be a player to watch.  Just when he seemed to be hopelessly out of favor with Martin Jol he responded with a stoppage-time match-winner against Arsenal and contributed an assist in the FA Cup match against Charlton.

Chelsea vs. Sunderland                                

10:00am  ET       

Chelsea

It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster season for the Blues, but they’re still a better bet than most to produce at home against mid-table competition.  Even with Sunderland returning to better form this match presents some appealing match-ups, not the least of which is Daniel Sturridge.  In Didier Drogba’s absence, Sturridge will be asked to produce and there’s every reason to think Chelsea’s leading goal-scorer is up to the task.  Juan Mata and Ramires are also distinct possibilities while Frank Lampard is always there for the more conservative owners who have funds to burn.  Defensively, clean sheets are no longer the norm or even expected at Stamford Bridge.  John Terry is among the leading fantasy defenders, but he has accomplished it with an abnormally high four goals through 20 games and may or may not have a knee injury.

Sunderland

Martin O’Neill has the Black Cats headed in the right direction and the club is already back up to 10^th in the table.  While there are still no truly standout players, Stephane Sessegnon is finally living up to potential and represents good value.  He is the only player to have started all 20 league matches for the club and he has two goals and two assists in his last four contests.  This isn’t the best match-up, but he could be a player to target for upcoming home matches against Swansea and Norwich.  Aside from that, the club offers the usual pu pu platter of reasonably productive mid-priced options like Seb Larsson and Wes Brown.

Liverpool vs. Stoke City                                

10:00am  ET       

Liverpool

With four goals in all competitions since returning from injury, Steven Gerrard hasn’t lost any of his touch.  He’s back to match-fitness and the club finally has a player than can convert a penalty.  It was his kick from the spot that gave the Reds a 1-0 advantage over Man City in the Carling Cup.  Aside from the return of the captain, everything else remains the same.  The bad:  Andy Carroll can’t score, Luis Suarez is suspended, and the midfielders are overpriced.  The good:  Any of the back four on this solid defensive team is a good bet against a Stoke club that has scored only eight goals in 10 away matches.

Stoke

Liverpool has dropped plenty of points at home and Stoke are only five points adrift in the table, but it’s tough to feel that good about any of the Potters in this one.  There’s no reason to be overly concerned about having any of the Stoke regulars in a fantasy lineup, but there’s no reason to go out and grab any of them for this match either.

Manchester United vs. Bolton Wanderers                           

10:00am  ET       

Man United

It’s hard to say what United’s state-of-mind will be after a turbulent FA Cup match that saw them nearly waste a 3-0 lead against 10-man Man City and a stretch of Premier League games that included an incredible loss to Blackburn and yet another round of Wayne Rooney discipline drama.  If anyone is fit to handle it, it’s Sir Alex Ferguson and the fact that it is 18^th place Bolton paying a visit to Old Trafford should alleviate most concerns.  This is a great chance for some recently struggling players like Rooney, Nani, and Phil Jones to bounce back.  Chris Smalling is back and is also a viable option.  The biggest question is at keeper where it’s shocking to see a controversy at United but neither David De Gea nor Anders Lindegaard can seem to win the battle outright.  Approach the keeper situation with apprehension, but Bolton has allowed a league-worst 43 goals so start any of the other players on the pitch without hesitation.

Bolton

Gary Cahill is a question for the match as the details of his transfer to Chelsea are being worked.  The move seemed inevitable a few days ago, but now it seems Cahill’s contract demands are proving to be a stumbling block.  In any case, all Bolton players should be avoided in what is a terrible match-up this Saturday.  United won 5-0 at the Reebok in September and this one could get equally ugly.

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers                      

10:00am  ET       

Spurs

Tottenham sit only three points out of first and only season-opening losses to the Manchester clubs that keep them out of first.  No team in the league has collected more points in their last 18 matches.  Wolves’ only hope is that Spurs are looking ahead to their match against Manchester City where they have a chance to avenge their early season loss and close the gap.  It’s not likely and this looks like a great match-up for the usual suspects such as Emmanuel Adebayor, Rafael Van der Vaart, and Gareth Bale.  All three somewhat disappointed during the double game-week but those are still the go-to-guys, with Van der Vaart in particular showing a resurgence in form.  The defense shouldn’t be neglected either.  Benoit Assou-Ekotto has started all 20 games and is providing excellent returns, most recently with a goal against Everton.  Brad Friedel keeps plugging along and has emerged as one of the most reliable fantasy keepers available as well.

Wolves

Things have gone in the opposite direction for Wolves, who opened the season with six points in their first two matches and have only managed 11 since.  This club was expected to establish themselves as a solid mid-table presence but instead Mike McCarthy finds himself in another relegation battle.  In spite of a recent 1-1 draw at the Emirates, there isn’t much reason for optimism this weekend.  Steven Fletcher leads the club with eight goals but it’s probably smart to avoid Wolves across the board for this one.

West Bromwich Albion vs. Norwich City                

10:00am  ET       

WBA

Roy Hodgson’s club got hot just before Christmas, winning an exciting match against Newcastle, defeating Blackburn, and playing Manchester City to a draw.  They simply can’t seem to maintain any kind of momentum and they have followed that run of matches by dropping 1-0 decisions to Everton and Spurs.  Peter Odemwingie leads the club with four goals and is back as a regular in the Starting XI, but only Wigan has scored fewer than West Brom’s 19 goals so don’t expect an offensive outburst, even against a club that has yet to record a clean sheet.

Norwich

Two years ago Norwich City were clawing their way up the League 1 table and today Paul Lambert has the club sitting in the top half of the Premier League.  Survival still isn’t guaranteed, but the outlook is promising.  Steve Morison and Grant Holt have seven goals each and either man can be a serviceable low-priced fantasy starter; however, keep in mind this Is an away match and the Canaries have only two wins in ten attempts away from Carrow Road.

Sunday, January 15^th

Newcastle United vs. Queens Park Rangers                        

8:30am  ET          

Newcastle

Newcastle turned in their best display of the season with a 3-0 dismantling of Manchester United but now life without Demba Ba starts.  Losing the player that has accounted for 52% of the scoring would be a huge blow to any club.  (Ba has 15 of the team’s 29 goals)  This will be an opportunity for Hatem Ben Arfa and Leon Best to step up but Ba is irreplaceable so expect scoring to drop.  The defenders and Tim Krul still look like good options against a QPR team that has scored only 19 goals.  Ryan Taylor and Yohan Cabaye are dangerous on free kicks (Cabaye will likely take over penalties in Ba’s absence) while Davide Santon could be a good value defender.

QPR

It’s crisis time at Loftus Road and the transfer window can’t open fast enough for a team teetering on the brink of the drop zone.  The club is in terrible form and after leading them to the promised land of the Premier League, Neil Warnock was sacked and has been replaced by Mark Hughes.  One of the most respected managers in the game, it’s reasonable to expect a bounce in production under Hughes that can only be bolstered by the availability of funds in the transfer market.  Fantasy owners should wait to see it materialize before making investments.  Joey Barton is suspended for the match against his former club and no one has had meaningful production since Heidar Helguson’s inexplicable goal outburst.

Swansea City vs. Arsenal

11:00am ET

Swansea

Swansea has allowed only four goals at home but they have conceded in their last two home matches so the remarkable run may at least be slowing down, but keeping clean sheets in six of their first ten home Premier League matches is impressive nonetheless.  Unsurprisingly, Michel Vorm and the defenders are excellent values, with Ashley Williams leading the way amongst the back four.  Scott Sinclair, Nathan Dyer, Angel Rangel, and Danny Graham are also viable options, even against top competition.  The Gunners have an injury-depleted backline so don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on Swansea players this week.

Arsenal

Arsenal was starting to show signs of fatigue, dropping points to Fulham and Wolves over the holiday and leaving some to question Arsene Wenger’s wisdom in his failure to give Robin van Persie a day or two or rest.  The club was given a much needed boost of enthusiasm when Thierry Henry returned to the club of his glory days and scored a dream match winner against Leeds to advance in the FA Cup.  The on loan New York Red Bulls player is only with the club for six weeks, but he should provide a much needed spark, especially with the loss of Gervinho to the Africa Cup of Nations.   Traveling to Wales won’t be an easy task where Swansea has remarkably conceded only four goals.  The Gunners were only able to get one past Michel Vorm in the first meeting at the Emirates and it took a miscue for that to break to deadlock.  Even with the defensive track record, Robin van Persie is an obvious starter and it would surprise no one if he exploded for multiple goals.  There could be problems on defense where Thomas Vermaelen is out injured and Bacary Sagna is still a couple of weeks away from fitness.  Expect some adventures from the makeshift back four and Arsenal has allowed a league worst 22 away goals, so don’t count on a clean sheet.

Monday, January 16^th

Wigan Athletic vs. Manchester City

3:00pm ET

Wigan

Wigan has taken points from Liverpool, Chelsea, and Stoke in the past month, but let’s not get carried away.  Those matches were all draws and they have also been on the wrong side of a 5-0 defeat to Manchester United and a 4-1 loss to Sunderland.  Most recently they were knocked out of the FA Cup by Swindon Town.  The good news is that Hugo Rodallega has finally scored and Victor Moses is finally starting to play to his potential, but those are simply storylines to monitor.  Avoid all Wigan players, even at home and against a Man City team that has stumbled a lot lately, they should be no match for the league leaders.

Man City

Having been victorious in only one of their previous five matches in all competitions, this does not have the look of a club sitting atop the table.  The three point lead seems very precarious and there’s no room for error.  This match is likely a reprieve from the mounting pressure and it should still translate to three points heading into a crucial contest against Spurs.  Aside from the relative weakness of the opponent, there’s not much positive to report.  Vincent Kompany is suspended and his replacement Stefan Savic looked out of his league against Liverpool, conceding a bad penalty after only 13 minutes of action.  It is possible Roberto Mancini could go with Micah Richards in a central defensive position against Wigan as an alternative.  Yaya Toure was sorely missed in midfield, David Silva is questionable with injury, and Mario Balotelli was subbed in the first-half after a now trademark moody and unproductive run out.  That leaves Sergio Aguero pressured to provide some goals with Samir Nasri also a possibility to step up production against Wigan.  The match-up is too good to ignore any player, but there’s no shortage of red flags.

Follow Thomas Hejduk @InsightsSoccer on Twitter.